Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Kazakhstan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18778/2391-6478.3.43.06Keywords:
economic growth, financial development, Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, multiple linear regression, KazakhstanAbstract
The purpose of the article. The relationship between economic growth and financial development has long been widely discussed in scientific circles. Most empirical research has led to the clear conclusion that financial markets stimulate economic development. However, in the case of financial markets in developing countries, this conclusion is not so obvious. The aim of this study is to empirically verify the relationship between economic growth and the development of the stock market (Kazakhstan Stock Exchange).
Methodology. Empirical verification of the strength and shape of the cause-and-effect relationship between real GDP growth and independent predictors will be carried out using classic linear regression models with many independent variables.
Results of the research. The results of empirical verification of the strength and shape of the cause-and-effect relationship between the growth of real GDP and independent predictors indicate that the development of the stock market has a positive impact on the growth of the country's real GDP but is not the basic factor of Kazakhstan's economic growth.
Downloads
References
Akimov, A., Wijeweera, A., Dollery, B. (2009). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Applied Financial Economics, 19(12): 999–1008.
Google Scholar
Andersen, T.B., Tarp, E. (2003). Financial Liberalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth in LDCs. Journal of International Development, 15(2): 189–209.
Google Scholar
Annual report of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (Raport roczny Banku Krajowego RK) (2022). https://www.nationalbank.kz/ru/news/godovoy-otchet-nbk [Accessed 01.12.2023].
Google Scholar
Aregbeshola, R.A. (2016). The role of local financial market on economic growth, A sample of three African economic groupings. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 7(2): 225–240. DOI: 10.1108/ajems-06–2014–0048
Google Scholar
Arestis, P., Demetriades, P.O. & Luintel, K.B. (2001). Financial development and economic growth: The role of stock markets. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 33(1): 16–41.
Google Scholar
Arestis, P., Demetriades, P.O. (1997). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence. The Economic Journal, 107(442): 783–799.
Google Scholar
Auyezbayeva, T.E., Tusupova, S.A. (2014). Finance and Economic Growth Relationships. In case of Kazakhstan. Proposed Research background. International Journal of Experimental Education, 4(2): 70–74.
Google Scholar
Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market. Published in 1962 by Richard D. Irwin, Homewood, London.
Google Scholar
Beck, T., Levine, R. (2004). Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(3): 423–442.
Google Scholar
Berdigulova, D. (2010). The economic impact of financial development in different regions of Kazakhstan. https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/553647 [Accessed 07.11.22].
Google Scholar
Bezemer, D.J., Grydaki, M., Zhang, L. (2016). More Mortgages, Lower Growth? Economic Inquiry, 54(1): 652–674.
Google Scholar
Brent Oil Futures Historical Data. https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-historical-data [Accessed 07.01.2024].
Google Scholar
Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. https://old.stat.gov.kz/for_users/dynamic [Accessed 05.08.2023; 19.11.2023; 01.12.2023].
Google Scholar
Caporale, G.M., Rault, C., Sova, A.D. & Sova, R. (2015). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from 10 New European Union Members. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 20(1): 48–60, DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1498
Google Scholar
Creel, J., Hubert, P., Labondance, F. (2015). Financial Stability and Economics Performance. Economic Modelling, 48: 25–40.
Google Scholar
Dawson, P.J. (2003). Financial development and growth in economies in transition. Applied Economics Letters, 10(13): 833–836, DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000154243
Google Scholar
De Gregorio, J., Guidotti, P.E. (1995). Financial Development and Economic Growth. World Development, 23(3): 433–448. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(94)00132-I
Google Scholar
Deidda, L.G. (2006). Interaction between economic and financial development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(2): 233–248. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.03.007
Google Scholar
Demetriades, P.O., Hussein, K.A. (1996) Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-series Evidence from 16 Countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51(2): 387–411. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(96)00421-X
Google Scholar
Demirguc-Kunt, A., Levine, R. (1996). Stock market development and financial intermediaries: Stylized facts. World Bank Economic Review, 10(2): 291–321, DOI: 10.1093/wber/10.2.291
Google Scholar
Djalilov, K., Piesse, J. (2011). Financial Development and Growth in Transition Countries: A study of Central Asia. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(6): 4–23.
Google Scholar
Durusu-Ciftci, D., Ispir, M.S. & Yetkiner, H. (2017), Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2): 290–306. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.08.001
Google Scholar
European Central Bank. Euro money market study 2022. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/euromoneymarket/html/ecb.euromoneymarket202204.en.html [Accessed 01.02.2024].
Google Scholar
FRED. Gross Domestic Product for Kazakhstan. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32734 [Ac-cessed 08.01.2024].
Google Scholar
Global Economic Prospects (January 2023). https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/59695a57-f323-5fa8-8c6f-d58bfa8918cd [Accessed 05.08.2023].
Google Scholar
Goldsmith R. W., (1969), Financial Structure and Development, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
Google Scholar
Gross domestic product 2022. World Bank. https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/GDP.pdf [Accessed 14.07.2023].
Google Scholar
Hamilton, A. (1781). Banks and Politics in America: From the Revolution to the Civil War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Google Scholar
Indeks S&P 500 podsumowuje krwawy 2022 rok. Kiedy Wall Street wstanie z kolan? https://comparic.pl/indeks-sp-500-podsumowuje-krwawy-2022-r-czy-wall-street-wstanie-z-kolan/ [Accessed 01.02.2024].
Google Scholar
Jung Woo, S. (Jan., 1986). Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2): 333–346.
Google Scholar
Karolyi, G.A. (2004). The Role of American Depositary Receipts in the Development of Emerging Equity Markets. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86: 670–690.
Google Scholar
KASE Annual Report (Raport Roczny KASE). (2022). https://kase.kz/files/reports/KASE_meeting_2022_rus.pdf [Accessed 01.12.2023].
Google Scholar
KASE. Annual reports. https://kase.kz/ru/shareholders_reports/ [Accessed 19.11.2023].
Google Scholar
KASE. Newsletter. https://kase.kz/en/newsletter/ [Accessed 08.01.2024].
Google Scholar
KASE. Reports and presentations. https://kase.kz/ru/presentations/ [Accessed 19.11.2023].
Google Scholar
KASE. Shares. https://kase.kz/en/shares/ [Accessed 08.01.2024].
Google Scholar
Katenova, M., Nurmakhanova, M. (2017). Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Kazakhstan. International Review of Business Research Papers, 13(1): 151–160.
Google Scholar
KazStat. National accounts (Rachunki krajowe). https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/economy/national-accounts/publications/ [Accessed 07.07.2023; 01.12.2023; 08.01.2024; 05.02.2024].
Google Scholar
Kim, T.-Y., Shin, J., Kim, Y., Lee, J.-D. (2014). The Relationship Among Stock Markets, Banks, Economic Growth, and Industry Development. In: T.-Y. Kim, A. Heshmati, eds., Economic Growth: The New Perspectives for Theory and Policy. Springer: 279–292.
Google Scholar
King, R.G. & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and Growth – Schumpeter Might Be Right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3): 717–737. DOI: 10.2307/2118406
Google Scholar
Levine, R. & Zervos, S. (1996). Stock market development and long-run growth. World Bank Economic Review, 10(2): 323–339. DOI: 10.1093/wber/10.2.323
Google Scholar
Levine, R. (1991). Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy. Journal of Finance, 46(4): 1445–1465. DOI: 10.2307/2328866
Google Scholar
Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2): 688–726.
Google Scholar
Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: Theory and evidence. In: P. Aghion & S. Durlauf, eds., Handbook of Economic growth. Amsterdam: Elsevier: 865–934.
Google Scholar
Levine, R., Schmukler, S. (2003). Migration, Spillovers and Trade Diversion: The Impact of Internationalization on Domestic Stock Market Liquidity. NBER Working Paper, 9614, www.nber.org/papers/w9614 [Accessed 07.06.2023].
Google Scholar
Levine, R., Zervos, S. (1998). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth. American economic review, 88(3): 537–558.
Google Scholar
Li Chee Yen, Nair, M. (2010). The Impact of FDI and Financial Sector Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Asia and Oceania. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(2): 107–119.
Google Scholar
Loayza, N.V., Ranciere, R. (2006). Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38(4): 1051–1076.
Google Scholar
Neimke, M., (2003). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Transition Countries. IEE Working Papers, 173, https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:ieewps:173 [Accessed 06.06.2023].
Google Scholar
Nichkasova, Y.O., Nezhinsky, E., Shmarlouskaya, H.A. (2022). The Impact of the Local Financial Market on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Kazakhstan. Ekonomika Regiona, 18(1): 208–222.
Google Scholar
OECD Stat. https://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?datasetcode=EO112_INTERNET&lang=en# [Accessed 25.05.2023].
Google Scholar
Oskonbaeva, Z. (2018). Causal Link Between Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Countries. Financial and Credit Activity – Problems of Theory and Practice, 3(26): 418–424. DOI: 10.18371/fcaptp.v3i26.121844
Google Scholar
Patrick, H. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2): 174–189.
Google Scholar
Podstawy statystyki, (2004), praca zbiorowa pod red. W. Starzyńskiej. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Difin.
Google Scholar
Pradhan, R.P. (2018). Development of stock market and economic growth: The G-20 evidence. Eurasian Economic Review, 8(2): 161–181. DOI: 10.1007/s40822–018–0094–4
Google Scholar
Rabiej, M. (2012). Statystyka z programem Statistica. Gliwice: Wydawnictwo Heloin.
Google Scholar
Rioja, F., Valev, N. (2004). Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development. Economic Inquiry, 42(1): 127–140.
Google Scholar
RK National Bank. International reserves and assets of the RK National Fund, https://nationalbank.kz/ru/international-reserve-and-asset/mezhdunarodnye-rezervy-i-aktivy-nacionalnogo-fonda-rk [Accessed 07.07.2023].
Google Scholar
RK National Bank. Official average exchange rates for a given period. https://nationalbank.kz/ru/news/oficialnye-kursy [Accessed 01.12.2023; 08.01.2024].
Google Scholar
RK National Bank. Schedule for making decisions on the base rate for 2015–2023 (Bank Krajowy Republiki Kazachstanu: Harmonogram podejmowania decyzji w sprawie stawki bazowej na lata 2015–2023). https://www.nationalbank.kz/ru/news/grafik-prinyatiya-resheniy-po-bazovoy-stavke/rubrics/1698 [Accessed 01.12.2023].
Google Scholar
Rousseau, P.L., Wachtel, P. (2011). What is Happening to the Impact of Financial Deepening on Economic Growth? Economic Inquiry, 49(1): 276–288.
Google Scholar
Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). A theory of economic development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Google Scholar
Shen, C.-H., Lee, C.-C. (2006). Same Financial Development Yet Different Economic Growth – Why? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38(7): 1907–1944.
Google Scholar
Skare, M., Porada-Rochoń, M. (2019). Financial and economic development link in transitional economies: A spectral Granger causality analysis 1991–2017. Oeconomia Copernicana, 10(1): 7–35. DOI: 10.24136/oc.2019.001
Google Scholar
Stanisz A., red. (2007). Przystępny kurs statystyki: z zastosowaniem STATISTICA PL na przykładach z medycyny. T. 2. Modele liniowe i nieliniowe. Kraków: Wydawnictwo StatSoft Polska.
Google Scholar
Tax Commission of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Komisja Skarbowa Ministerstwa Finansów RK), Dynamika wpływów podatkowych i wpłat do Funduszu Krajowego RK. https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/kgd/activities/655?lang=ru [Accessed 07.07.2023].
Google Scholar
US FED hikes rates by 25 basis points to highest in 22 years. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-fed-hikes-rates-by-25-basis-points-to-highest-in-22-years/2955215 [Accessed 01.02.2024].
Google Scholar
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.