Determinants of Foreign Aid: The Case of Poland

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of Poland’s bilateral official developmental assistance (ODA) per capita allocation between 2013 and 2023 across 127 recipient countries. Employing panel data and multiple regression models, the analysis evaluates whether Poland, as a European Union post-accession donor with a post-communist transition background, allocates aid primarily based on recipient need or donor interest. The results indicate that Poland allocates significantly higher per capita aid to Eastern Partnership countries, reflecting strong regional solidarity rooted in historical ties. Within this regional context, aid allocation exhibits a non-linear income pattern, with middle-income recipients receiving the most support. Contrastingly, among non-Eastern Partnership recipients, income plays a minimal to negligible role in Poland’s aid allocation decisions. Trade relationships are relevant within the regional context, whereas democracy promotion shows no significant influence on aid allocation. The analysis further reveals that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had a significant impact on Poland’s aid allocation to Eastern Partnership countries. Overall, these findings provide partial support for the dual-track hypothesis identified in the literature on emerging Asian donors. The results suggest that Poland’s ODA follows a regionally focused strategy that combines geopolitical concerns with transition solidarity, rather than being driven by humanitarian or commercial motives.