Forecasting of the Employment Rate in the EU ICT Field

Tetiana Zatonatska; Yuriy Klapkiv; Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi; Olha Fedirko

doi:10.18778/1508-2008.25.19

Autor

Tetiana Zatonatska Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Professor, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9197-0560
Yuriy Klapkiv Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Associate Professor, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9771-5357
Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Professor, West Ukrainian National University, Ternopil, Ukraine; Higher School of Economics and Innovation (WSEI), Lublin, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2040-8762
Olha Fedirko Data Scientist, Empower Company, Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1955-9034

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.25.19

Słowa kluczowe:

wdrożenie ICT, cyfryzacja, zarządzanie zatrudnieniem, popyt na pracę, łańcuch Markowa

Abstrakt

Zakorzeniona w ostatnim dziesięcioleciu tendencja do wdrażania technologii informacyjno‑komunikacyjnych w przedsiębiorstwach UE spowodowała wstrząsające zmiany na rynku pracy. Ponieważ zapotrzebowanie na personel ICT rośnie, nadal istnieje potrzeba stworzenia kompleksowej strategii skutecznego zarządzania specjalistami ICT na potrzeby restrukturyzacji przedsiębiorstw. Celem badań jest identyfikacja procesów transferu pomiędzy nisko‑ i wysoko wykwalifikowanym personelem ICT oraz przewidywanie wskaźnika zatrudnienia w dziedzinie ICT do 2025 r. W badaniach wykorzystano łańcuch Markowa jako metodę analizy. W OPARCIU O dane statystyczne dotyczące wskaźnika zatrudnienia personelu ICT według poziomu wykształcenia opracowano model łańcucha Markowa, który opisuje procesy personelu ICT o różnym poziomie wykształcenia. Do analizy wykorzystano dane z okresu 2005–2019 do zbudowania prognozy ze względu na brak najnowszych informacji. W efekcie udowodniono, że przy pomocy procesów digitalizacji stopa zatrudnienia pracowników ICT w 2025 r. wzrośnie o 64% w porównaniu z danymi z 2018 r. Badania potwierdziły, że personel ICT będzie bardzo potrzebny do 2023 r., a co ważne, zapotrzebowanie na pracowników o niskich i średnich kwalifikacjach będzie rosło, jak i na wysoko wykwalifikowanych. Stopa zatrudnienia w dziedzinie ICT będzie na wyższym poziomie w 2022 r., ponieważ sprzyjające warunki ekonomiczne dla przyjęcia ICT mu pomogą. Rosnące zapotrzebowanie na personel ICT o niskim i średnim poziomie kwalifikacji będzie zapewnione przez personel przenoszący procesy, przedsiębiorstwa i cyfryzację rządu. Największy wzrost zatrudnienia personelu ICT nastąpi do 2023 r., a w przyszłości wzrost zatrudnienia spowolni. Główną przeszkodą dla wzrostu zatrudnienia poprzez cyfryzację jest globalny kryzys gospodarczy. Wartością dodaną analizy jest prognoza, że największy wzrost zatrudnienia personelu ICT nastąpi do 2023 roku, ale po będzie mało miejsce spowolnienie wzrostu zatrudnienia. Główną przeszkodą we wzroście zatrudnienia poprzez cyfryzację jest światowy kryzys gospodarczy z różnych powodów.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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