Forecasting of the Employment Rate in the EU ICT Field

Tetiana Zatonatska; Yuriy Klapkiv; Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi; Olha Fedirko

doi:10.18778/1508-2008.25.19

Authors

Tetiana Zatonatska Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Professor, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9197-0560
Yuriy Klapkiv Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Associate Professor, University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9771-5357
Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi Doctor of Sc. (Economics), Professor, West Ukrainian National University, Ternopil, Ukraine; Higher School of Economics and Innovation (WSEI), Lublin, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2040-8762
Olha Fedirko Data Scientist, Empower Company, Kyiv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1955-9034

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.25.19

Keywords:

ICT adoption, digitalization, employment management, labor demand, Markov chain

Abstract

The ingrained tendency to implement information and communication technologies (ICT) in EU enterprises over the last decade has caused dramatic changes in the labor market. Since the demand for ICT personnel is growing, there is still a need to create a comprehensive strategy to effectively manage ICT specialists when restructuring enterprises. The aim of the research is to identify transferring processes between low‑ and high‑skilled ICT personnel and predict the employment rate in the ICT field until 2025. A Markov chain was used as the method of analysis. Using statistical data about the employment rate of ICT personnel by education attainment level, we have built a Markov chain model that describes the processes of ICT personnel with different levels of education. Data from 2005 to 2019 was used to build forecasting because of the absence of the latest information. We demonstrate that with the help of digitalization, the employment rate of ICT staff in 2025 will increase by 64% compared to 2018. The research verifies that ICT personnel will be in great demand until 2023 and, importantly, low‑ and middle‑skilled personnel will be in demand, as well as high‑skilled personnel. The employment rate in the ICT field will be at its highest level in 2022 as the favorable economic conditions for ICT adoption will help it. The growing demand for low‑ and medium‑skilled ICT staff are met both by staff relocation processes and by the increasing digitalization of business units and public sector institutions. The added value of the analysis is the prediction that the largest growth in ICT personnel employment will occur by 2023, but employment growth will slow down after that. The main obstacle to employment growth through digitalization is the global economic crisis because of different reasons.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abramova, N., Grishchenko, N. (2020), ICTs, Labour Productivity and Employment: Sustainability in Industries in Russia, “Procedia Manufacturing”, 43, pp. 299–305, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2020.02.161
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2020.02.161

Agwu, E. (2015), Application of ICT to agriculture as a panacea to unemployment in Nigeria, “International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Review”, 3 (4), pp. 26–48.
Google Scholar

Amiri, S., Dodson, Ch., Woodside, J. (2015), The impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on Brazil, Russia, India and China’s (BRIC) employment and economic growth, Twenty‑first Americas Conference on Information Systems, https://aisel.aisnet.org/amcis2015/GlobDev/GeneralPresentations/3/ (accessed: 11.01.2022).
Google Scholar

Anicic, K., Divjak, B., Arbanas, K. (2017), Preparing ICT Graduates for Real‑World Challenges: Results of a Meta‑Analysis, “IEEE Transition on Education”, 60 (3), pp. 191–197, https://doi.org/10.1109/TE.2016.2633959
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/TE.2016.2633959

Arenas Díaz, G., Barge‑Gil, A., Heijs, J. (2020), The effect of innovation on skilled and unskilled workers during bad Times, “Structural Change and Economic Dynamics”, 52, pp. 141–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.09.012
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.09.012

Arntz, M., Gregory, T., Zierahn, U. (2016), The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis, “OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers”, No. 189.
Google Scholar

Balsmeier, B., Woerter, M. (2019), Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction, “Research Policy”, 48 (8), 103765, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2019.03.010
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2019.03.010

Bockerman, P., Laaksonen, S., Vainiomaki, J. (2016), Are Jobs More Polarized in ICT Firms?, “IZA Discussion Paper”, No. 9851, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2757961
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2757961

Brambilla, I., Tortarolo, D. (2018), Investment in ICT, Productivity, and Labor Demand: The Case of Argentina, “Policy Research Working Paper”, No. 8325, https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8325
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8325

Cirillo, V., Evangelista, R., Guarascio, D., Sostero, M. (2020), Digitalization, routines and employment: An exploration on Italian Task‑based data, “Research Policy”, 5 (7), 104079, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.104079
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.104079

Dachs, B., Hud, M., Koehler, C., Peters, B. (2016), Innovation, creative destruction and structural change: firm‑level evidence from European countries, “Industry and Innovation”, 24 (4), pp. 346–381, https://doi.org/10.1080/13662716.2016.1261695
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13662716.2016.1261695

Dluhopolskyi, O., Zatonatska, T., Lvova, I., Klapkiv, Y. (2019), Regulations for Returning Labour Migrants to Ukraine: International Background and National Limitations, “Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe”, 22 (3), pp. 45–64, https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2019-0022
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2019-0022

Dluhopolskyi, O., Simakhova, A., Zatonatska, T., Oleksiv, I., Kozlovskyi, S. (2021), Potential of Virtual Reality in the Current Digital Society: Economic Perspectives, 11th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies, September 15–17, Deggendorf, Germany, pp. 360–363, https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT52158.2021.9548495
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT52158.2021.9548495

Dosi, G., Mohnen, P. (2019), Innovation and employment: an introduction, “Industrial and Corporate Change”, 28 (1), pp. 45–49, https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty064
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty064

Eurostat (n.d.), https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/home (accessed: 10.04.2021).
Google Scholar

Falk, M., Biagi, F. (2015), Empirical studies on the impacts of ICT usage in Europe, “Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Digital Economy Working Paper”, No. 2015/14, https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/202215 (accessed: 10.04.2021).
Google Scholar

Falk, M., Biagi, F. (2016), Relative demand for highly skilled workers and use of different ICT technologies, “Applied Economics”, 49 (9), pp. 903–914.
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1208357

Falk, M., Hagsten, E. (2018), Employment impacts of market novelty sales: evidence for nine European Countries, “Eurasian Business Review”, 8, pp. 119–137, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-017-0098-0
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-017-0098-0

Flynn, J., Dance, S., Schaefer, D. (2017), Industry 4.0 and Its Potential Impact on Employment Demographics in the UK, “Advances in Manufacturing Technology XXXI ”, 6, pp. 239–244, https://doi.org/10.3233/978-1-61499-792-4-239
Google Scholar

Frey, C., Osborn, M. (2017), The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization?, “Technological Forecasting and Social Change”, 114, pp. 254–280, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019

Fukao, K., Miyagawa, T., Kil Pyo, H., Rhee, K., Takizawa, M. (2020), The impact of information and communications technology investment on employment in Japan and Korea, [in:] B.M. Fraumeni (ed.), Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity. Foundations, KLEMS Production Models, and Extensions, Elsevier Inc., London–San Diego–Cambridge–Oxford, pp. 283–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-817596-5.00013-5
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-817596-5.00013-5

Gagniuc, P.A. (2017), Markov Chains: From Theory to Implementation and Experimentation, John Wiley & Sons, New York, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119387596
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119387596

Goaied, M., Sassi, S. (2019), The effect of ICT adoption on labour demand: A cross‑region comparison, “Regional Science”, 98 (1), pp. 3–16, https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12321
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12321

Herman, E. (2020), The Influence of ICT Sector on the Romanian Labor Market in the European Context, “Procedia Manufacturing”, 46, pp. 344–351, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2020.03.050
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2020.03.050

Jorgenson, D.W., Vu, K.M. (2016), The ICT revolution, world economic growth, and policy issues, “Telecommunications Policy”, 40 (5), pp. 383–397, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2016.01.002
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2016.01.002

Koziuk, V., Hayda, Y., Dluhopolskyi, O., Martynyuk, V., Klapkiv, Y. (2020), Efficiency of environmental taxation in EU countries: comparative analysis, “Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu”, 5, pp. 115–121, https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2020-5/015
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2020-5/015

Latif, Z., Mengke, Y., Danish, Latif, S., Ximei, L., Pathan, Z.H., Salam, S., Jianqiu, Z. (2017), The dynamics of ICT, foreign direct investment, globalization and economic growth: Panel estimation robust to heterogeneity and cross‑sectional dependence, “Telematics and Informatics”, 35 (2), pp. 318–328, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2017.12.006
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2017.12.006

Marcolin, L., Miroudot, S., Squicciarini, M. (2016), Routine jobs, employment and technological innovation in global value chains, “OECD Trade Policy Papers”, No. 187, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5jm5dcz2d26j‑en
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/5jm5dcz2d26j-en

Nation Master (2022), Number of Persons Employed of ICT, https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/ranking/number‑of‑persons‑employed‑of‑ict (accessed: 11.01.2022).
Google Scholar

Oleksiv, I., Kharchuk, V., Shulyar, R., Dluhopolskyi, O. (2021), Quality of Student Support at IT Educational Programmes: Case of Lviv Polytechnic National University, 11th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies, September 15–17, Deggendorf, Germany, pp. 270–275, https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT52158.2021.9548648
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT52158.2021.9548648

Panchenko, O., Klochko, A., Dluhopolskyi, O., Klochko, O., Shchurova, V., Peker, A. (2021), Impact of the COVID–19 Pandemic on the Development of Artificial Intelligence: Challenges for the Human Rights, 11th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies, September 15–17, Deggendorf, Germany, pp. 744–747, https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT52158.2021.9548357
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACIT52158.2021.9548357

Pantea, S., Sabadash, A., Biagi, F. (2017), Are ICT displacing workers in the short run? Evidence from seven European countries, “Information Economics and Policy”, 39, pp. 36–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2017.03.002
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2017.03.002

Peters, B., Hud, M., Dachs, B., Köhler, C. (2017), Employment Effects of Innovations over the Business Cycle: Firm‑Level Evidence from European Countries, “SPRU Working Paper Series”, No. 03, http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2912140
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2912140

Rutkowski, E. (ed.) (2019), IT/ICT Sector in Poland, Polish Agency for Enterprise Development, Warsaw, https://ict.trade.gov.pl/pl/f/v/570995/PPE_PL_IT%20ICT%20SECTOR%20IN%20POLAND.pdf (accessed: 10.04.2021).
Google Scholar

Spedicato, G. (2020), The Markov chain package: A package for easily handling discrete Markov Chains in R., https://cran.r‑project.org (accessed: 10.04.2021).
Google Scholar

Spiezia, V., Polder, M., Presidente, G. (2016), ICT and jobs: complements or substitutes? The effects of ICT investment on labour demand by skills and by industry in selected OECD countries, “OECD Digital Economy Papers”, http://hdl.voced.edu.au/10707/406130 (accessed: 8.05.2021).
Google Scholar

Statista (2022), Education & Science, https://www.statista.com/markets/411/topic/962/education‑science/#overview (accessed: 11.01.2022).
Google Scholar

Tolver, A. (2016), An introduction to Markov chains, http://web.math.ku.dk/noter/filer/stoknoter.pdf (accessed: 22.06.2021).
Google Scholar

Zatonatska, T., Dluhopolskyi, O. (2019), Modelling the efficiency of the cloud computing implementation at enterprises, “Marketing and Management of Innovations”, 3, pp. 45–59, https://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2019.3-04
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2019.3-04

Zatonatska, T., Fedirko, O. (2019), Modeling of E‑Commerce Impact on Employment in EU, 2019 IEEE International Conference on Advanced Trends in Information Theory (ATIT), 18–20 December, Kyiv, Ukraine, pp. 304–308, https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9030427 (accessed: 10.04.2021).
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ATIT49449.2019.9030427

Zatonatska, T., Dluhopolskyi, O., Chyrak, I., Kotys, N. (2019), The internet and e‑commerce diffusion in European countries (modeling at the example of Austria, Poland, and Ukraine), “Innovative Marketing”, 15 (1), pp. 66–75, https://doi.org/10.21511/im.15(1).2019.06
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.21511/im.15(1).2019.06

Zatonatska, T., Fedirko, O., Dluhopolskyi, O., Londar, S. (2021), The impact of e‑commerce on the sustainable development: case of Ukraine, Poland, and Austria, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 915, (ISCES) “International Conference on Environmental Sustainability in Natural Resources Management”, 15–16 October, Odesa, Ukraine, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/915/1/012023
Google Scholar DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/915/1/012023