Is It the Natural Rate Hypothesis or the Hysteresis Hypothesis for Unemployment Rates in Newly Industrialized Economies?

Dieu Nsenga; Mirada Nach; Hlalefang Khobai; Clement Moyo; Andrew Phiri

doi:10.2478/cer-2019-0031

Autor

Dieu Nsenga Nelson Mandela University, Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economic Studies, Port Elisabeth, South Africa
Mirada Nach Nelson Mandela University, Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economic Studies, Port Elisabeth, South Africa
Hlalefang Khobai Ph.D., Senior lecturer, North West University, Department of Economics Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Port Elisabeth, South Africa
Clement Moyo Ph.D., post‑doctorate researcher, Nelson Mandela University, Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economic Studies, Port Elisabeth, South Africa
Andrew Phiri Ph.D., Senior lecturer, Nelson Mandela University, Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economic Studies, Port Elisabeth, South Africa

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2019-0031

Słowa kluczowe:

hipoteza stopy naturalnej, hipoteza histerezy, bezrobocie, testy pierwiastka jednostkowego, aproksymacja Fouriera, gospodarki nowo uprzemysłowione

Abstrakt

Celem badania było ustalenie czy stopy bezrobocia w 8 gospodarkach nowo uprzemysłowionych kształtują się zgodnie z hipotezą stopy naturalnej czy z hipotezą histerezy. W tym celu zastosowano wiele rodzajów testów pierwiastka jednostkowego w odniesieniu danych kwartalnych zebranych między 1 kwartałem 2002 a 1 kwartałem 2017. Podsumowując ustalenia można stwierdzić, że konwencjonalne testy pierwiastka jednostkowego, które nie uwzględniają ani asymetrii, ani zmian strukturalnych, dają najbardziej niejednoznaczne wyniki. Z drugiej strony, testy uwzględniające zmiany strukturalne przy zignorowaniu asymetrii potwierdzałyby hipotezę stopy naturalnej dla przyjętego panelu państw. Jednak jednoczesne uwzględnienie asymetrii i niezauważalnych zmian strukturalnych wydaje się dawać najbardziej wiarygodne wyniki i potwierdza histerezę w przypadku stóp bezrobocia wszystkich państw, za wyjątkiem gospodarek/państw azjatyckich: Tajlandii i Filipin.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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