Niewykorzystany potencjał na rynku pracy UE w czasie kryzysu COVID–19

Autor

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.27.33

Słowa kluczowe:

niewykorzystany potencjał na rynku pracy, bezrobocie, COVID–19, polityka antykryzysowa, analiza skupień

Abstrakt

Celem ogólnym artykułu jest weryfikacja poziomu niewykorzystanego potencjału na rynku pracy w trzech momentach uznanych za kluczowe podczas analizy zmian spowodowanych przez pandemię. Głównym celem jest zidentyfikowanie podobieństw i różnic między krajami UE, które zostały przypisane do klastrów wyodrębnionych w procesie badawczym.
W badaniu zastosowano analizę skupień w celu klasyfikacji państw członkowskich UE do grup podobnych krajów według zmiennych niewykorzystanego potencjału na rynku pracy, obserwowanych przed pandemią (2019) oraz w jej trakcie (2020, 2021). Wybrano podejście dwuetapowe. Na pierwszym etapie zastosowano analizę hierarchiczną do określenia początkowej liczby grup, natomiast na drugim etapie dokonano właściwej klasyfikacji obiektów przy użyciu metody k‑średnich.
Porównanie zmian zachodzących na rynkach pracy analizowanych krajów pozwala na wyodrębnienie czterech jednorodnych klastrów we wszystkich badanych okresach. Wyniki badania pokazują także, że w analizowanym okresie sytuacja większości krajów UE w odniesieniu do niewykorzystanego potencjału na rynku pracy się nie zmieniła. Niektóre z nich poprawiły swoją sytuację (jak Irlandia, Francja czy Cypr). Powodem takiej sytuacji może być skuteczność środków wspierających rynki pracy, które zostały wdrożone w krajach UE podczas pandemii. Krajem, w którym sytuacja w kontekście niewykorzystanego potencjału na rynku pracy pogorszyła się, są Włochy.
W perspektywie dalszych badań zasadne byłoby dokonanie dokładnej analizy skuteczności polityk i programów rynku pracy stosowanych w krajach zidentyfikowanych klastrów, ponieważ przyczyniły się one do względnie stabilnej sytuacji niewykorzystanego potencjału na rynku pracy. Przyszłe badania powinny być również skierowane na analizę zmian po stronie zatrudnienia, w tym analizę sektorową, co rozszerzyłoby wiedzę na temat sytuacji na rynku pracy w czasie kryzysu COVID–19. Co więcej, aby pogłębić analizę niewykorzystanego potencjału na rynku pracy, można włączyć perspektywę struktury demograficznej populacji.
Analizy rynku pracy oparte wyłącznie na stopie bezrobocia są niewystarczające, co jest szczególnie widoczne w obliczu konsekwencji spowodowanych przez pandemię COVID–19, ponieważ ta miara nie uwzględnia „efektu zniechęconego pracownika”. Dla UE istnieje luka badawcza w tym zakresie, co można wywnioskować ze statystyk niewykorzystanego potencjału na rynku pracy. Artykuł ten wypełnił więc wskazaną lukę.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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Opublikowane

2024-12-19

Jak cytować

Rollnik‑Sadowska, E., Cichowicz, E., & Dębkowska, K. (2024). Niewykorzystany potencjał na rynku pracy UE w czasie kryzysu COVID–19. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 27(4), 109–134. https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.27.33

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