The Impact of COVID–19 on the Level and Structure of Employment in European Union Countries

Małgorzata Markowska; Andrzej Sokołowski

doi:10.18778/1508-2008.26.05

Autor

Małgorzata Markowska Associate Professor, Wrocław University of Economics and Business, Wrocław, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4879-0112
Andrzej Sokołowski Professor, Collegium Humanum – Warsaw Management University, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2787-6665

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.26.05

Słowa kluczowe:

zatrudnienie, COVID–19, państwa Unii Europejskiej, dynamiczna analiza skupień, reguła trzech dwójek

Abstrakt

Celem artykułu jest zaproponowanie i zastosowanie metod, które można wykorzystać do oceny zmian w ciągu jednego roku dowolnego mierzalnego zjawiska z punktu widzenia tego, w jaki sposób podążają one za schematem procesu obserwowanego w latach poprzednich. Badania przeprowadzono dla zatrudnienia ogółem oraz zatrudnienia w następujących sekcjach: Rolnictwo, leśnictwo i rybołówstwo; Przemysł; Budownictwo; Handel hurtowy i detaliczny, transport, usługi hotelowe i restauracyjne; Informacja i komunikacja; Działalność finansowa i ubezpieczeniowa; Nieruchomości; Działalność naukowa, fachowa i techniczna, usługi administracyjne i pomocnicze; Administracja publiczna, obrona narodowa, edukacja, ochrona zdrowia i opieka społeczna; Sztuka, rozrywka, rekreacja, inne usługi, działalność gospodarstw domowych i organizacji pozarządowych. Zastosowano dwa podejścia metodologiczne. W ramach pierwszego oszacowano modele trendu i autoregresji na podstawie danych z lat 2008–2019 oraz wyznaczono prognozy na rok 2020. Następnie porównano je z wartościami rzeczywistymi w roku 2020. Zaproponowano tzw. Regułę trzech dwójek. Drugie podejście to dynamiczna analiza skupień. Zmiany w składzie wyodrębnionych grup pozwoliły na ocenę wpływu pandemii COVID 19 na stopy zatrudnienia w roku 2020.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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