Wpływ zadłużenia publicznego na dynamikę wzrostu gospodarczego w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

Zbigniew Karmela

doi:10.18778/2082-4440.26.01

Authors

Zbigniew Karmela Uniwersytet Łódzki, Wydział Ekonomiczno-Socjologiczny, Katedra Makroekonomii

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/2082-4440.26.01

Keywords:

public debt, economic growth, fiscal policy

Abstract

The paper concerns the impact of debt on economic growth in CEE countries for the years 1996–2017. The analysis has shown that there is a coexistence of high public debt and low economic growth. To verify whether the coexistence of these economic categories is causal, the estimation has delayed values of the debt to GDP ratio and the square of that variable. The analysis included four types of econometric models: OLS, GMM first difference, system GMM and fixed effects. As a result of our calculations, the thresholds for the maximum public debt-to-GDP ratio per capita ranged between 67.3% and 77%. For such computed thresholds only Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary have reached a dangerous level of public debt.

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