Foreign trade and the theory of optimum currency areas. Implications for Poland

Authors

  • Iwona Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, Department of International Economic Relations

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/2082-4440.13.01

Keywords:

Optimal Currency Area Theory, export, import, Poland, European Union, currency exchange rate

Abstract

The paper focuses on one of the aspects of the OCA theory and on a new endogenous approach analysing mutual trade links of the countries in a common currency area. According to Kinnon (1963), a high degree of openness of the candidate countries is a precondition for establishing an OCA. Thus, the area can be created by countries with a high share of exports and imports in their GDP. The more open an economy, the higher the importance of the exchange rate for prices. We reviewed the literature on selected studies on the subject and analysed statistical data describing Poland’s trade in the years 2000–2010 with the euro area and EU member states outside of it.

References

Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Pachucki D., Walczyk K. (2009), Synchronizacja cyklu koniunkturalnego polskiej gospodarki z krajami strefy euro w kontekście struktury tych gospodarek, Raport na temat pełnego uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej, NBP, Warsaw 2009.
Google Scholar

Artis M.J., Fidrmuc J., Scharler J. (2008), The transmission of business cycles. Implications for EMU enlargement, Economics of Transition, Vol. 16(3), p. 559–582.
Google Scholar

Artis M.J., Zhang W. (1997), International business cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business cycle?, International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 2, p. 1099–1158.
Google Scholar

Babetskii I. (2005), Trade integration and synchronization of shocks: Implications for EU enlargement, Economics of Transition, No. 13, p. 105–138.
Google Scholar

Baldwin R. (2006), The Euro’s Trade Effects, ECB Working Paper, No. 594.
Google Scholar

Bilski J. (2012), Wpływ kursu walutowego na handel zagraniczny, PWE, Warsaw.
Google Scholar

Bilski J. (2006), Międzynarodowy system walutowy, PWE, Warsaw.
Google Scholar

Bussiere M., Fidrmuc J., Schnatz B. (2008), EU enlargement and trade integration: Lessons from gravity model, Review of Development Economics, Vol. 12(3), p. 562–576.
Google Scholar

Cieślik A. (2000), Nowa teoria handlu zagranicznego w świetle badań empirycznych, PWN, Warszawa.
Google Scholar

Cieślik A., Michałek J., Mycielski J. (2009), Analiza skutków handlowych przystąpienia Polski do Europejskiej Unii Monetarnej przy użyciu uogólnionego modelu grawitacyjnego, NBP [in:] Raport na temat pełnego uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej.
Google Scholar

Darvas Z., Szapary G. (2005), Business cycle synchronisation in the enlarged EU: Comovements in the New and old members, Discussion Paper No. 5179, London, CEPR.
Google Scholar

De Grauwe P. (2003), Unia Walutowa, PWE, Warszawa.
Google Scholar

De Grauwe P., Schnabl G. (2004), Exchange Rate Regime and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe, CESIfo Working Paper No. 1182.
Google Scholar

EC Commission (1990), One market, One money, European Economy, No. 44.
Google Scholar

Fidrmuc J. (2001), The Endogenity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Tradeand EMU Enlargement, BOFIT Discussion Paper, No. 8.
Google Scholar

Fidrmuc J., Korhonen I. (2006), Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs’, Journal of Comparative Economics, No. 34, p. 518–537.
Google Scholar

Flandreau M., Maurel M. (2005), Monetary union, trade integration, and business cycles in 19th century Europe, Open Economies Review, 16, p. 135–152.
Google Scholar

Frankel J., Rose A. (2002), An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income, Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, p. 437–466.
Google Scholar

Frankel J., Rose A.K. (1997), Is EMU More Justifiable Ex Post than Ex Ante?, The European Economic Review.
Google Scholar

Frankel J., Rose A.K. (1998), The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Economic Journal.
Google Scholar

Frankel J.A. (2004), Real convergence and euro adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and business cycle correlations as endogenous criteria for joining EMU, Working Paper No. 04-039, J.F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Google Scholar

Kalemli-Ozcan S., Sorensen B.E., Yosha O. (2001), Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations, Journal of International Economics, No. 55, 107–137.
Google Scholar

Kenen P. (1969), The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View [in:] Mundell R., Swoboda (eds), Monetary Problems in the International Economy, University of Chicago Press.
Google Scholar

Konopczak K. (2009), Analiza zbieżności cyklu koniunkturalnego gospodarki polskiej ze strefą euro na tle krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz państw członkowskich strefy euro, Raport na temat pełnego uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej, NBP, Warsaw.
Google Scholar

Krugman P. (1993), Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU [in:] Torres F., Giavazzi F. (eds), Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union, CEPR, London, CUP, Cambridge.
Google Scholar

Lutkowski K. (2004), Od złotego do euro, TWIGGER, Warsaw.
Google Scholar

Lutkowski K. (2009), Raport nt. uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej Walutowej, NBP.
Google Scholar

Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz I. (2012), Uwarunkowania wymiany handlowej Polski w latach 2000–2010 – wybrane zagadnienia [in:] Bilski J. (ed.), (2012), Wpływ kursu walutowego na handel zagraniczny, PWE, Warszawa, p. 57–121.
Google Scholar

Maliszewska M.A. (2004), New Member States Trading Potential Following EMU accession: A Gravity Approach, Studies and Analysis, No. 286, CASE – Centre for Social and Economic Research.
Google Scholar

McKinnon R. (1963), Optimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review, September.
Google Scholar

Micco A., Stein E., Ordonez G. (2003), The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU, Economic Policy 37, p. 315–356.
Google Scholar

Misala J. (2010), Zmiany kursu walutowego i dynamika cen w krajach o różnym poziomie rozwoju gospodarczego, Oficyna Wydawnicza SGH, Warsaw.
Google Scholar

Misala J. (2011), Międzynarodowa konkurencyjność gospodarki narodowej, PWE,Warsaw, p. 167 and further.
Google Scholar

Misala J. (2001), Współczesne teorie wymiany międzynarodowej i zagranicznej polityki ekonomicznej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa, Warszawa.
Google Scholar

Mongelli F. (2002), New Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory – What is EMU Telling Us?, ECB Working Paper, No. 138, ECB, Frankfurt am Main.
Google Scholar

Mundell R. (1961), A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, The American Economic Review, Vol. 51, No. 4, s. 657–665.
Google Scholar

Pentocete J.S., Poutineau J.C., Rondeau F. (2011), Trade, Extensive Margin on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in the case of EMU, CREM CNRS 6211, University of Rennes 1, February 2011.
Google Scholar

Raport na temat korzyści i kosztów przystąpienia Polski do strefy euro, NBP, Warsaw 2004.
Google Scholar

Rose A.K. (2008), EMU, trade and business cycle synchronization: What do we know and what does it mean for Poland?, Raport nt. pełnego uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej Walutowej, eseje zagranicznych i polskich ekonomistów, NBP.
Google Scholar

Tchorek G. (2009), Raport nt. uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej Walutowej, NBP.
Google Scholar

Wójcik C. (2008), Integracja ze strefą euro, PWN, Warsaw.
Google Scholar

Downloads

Published

2016-03-30

How to Cite

Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz, I. (2016). Foreign trade and the theory of optimum currency areas. Implications for Poland. Ekonomia Międzynarodowa (International Economics), (13), 5–26. https://doi.org/10.18778/2082-4440.13.01

Issue

Section

Articles