Ukrainian Migration Aspirations towards Germany: Analysis and Development Scenarios

Vitalii Boiko; Olha Mulska; Ihor Baranyak; Olha Levytska

doi:10.18778/1508-2008.24.04

Authors

Vitalii Boiko Dr, Professor, Department of Management of Organizations, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3968-1651
Olha Mulska Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow, Department of Social and Humanitarian Development of Regions, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1666-3971
Ihor Baranyak Junior Research Fellow, Department of Social and Humanitarian Development of Regions, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1467-0262
Olha Levytska Ph.D., Senior Research Fellow, Department of Social and Humanitarian Development of Regions, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8174-9918

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.24.04

Keywords:

migration aspirations, socio-economic factors, forecast, migration policy, Ukraine, Germany

Abstract

Based on the multiple regression model and scenario approach to forecasting, the article estimates the Ukrainian migration aspirations towards Germany (the scale of migration, the economic activity of migrants, and their economic benefits). It is argued that major transformations in the gender-age structure of the German population may cause a demographic crisis and labour market imbalances. Our projections indicate the growing role of foreign human resources in the German economy. When modeling the scale of emigration from Ukraine, an integrated approach is applied, considering not only trends of pull-push factors but also special aspects of the German migration policy and the outflow of 8–10 million Ukrainian migrant workers. Given the poor statistical data on the scale of labour emigration needed for constructing reliable econometric models, the use of expert forecasting method remains the most optimal technique for assessing potential migration flows and migration systems.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

All-Ukrainian Population Census (2001), Statistics Database, http://www.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/ (accessed: 15.05.2019).

Ausländische Bevölkerung (n.d.), https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/Bevoelkerung/MigrationIntegration/AuslaendBevoelkerung.html (accessed: 2.05.2019).

Bijak, J. (2006), Forecasting international migration: Selected theories, models, and methods, CEFMR Working Paper 4, Central European Forum for Migration Research, Warsaw, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c67f/39cc621207bf34c63f371108a6021102744f.pdf (accessed: 2.05.2019).

Bil, M. (2017), Retrospective survey of spatial mobility of the population, “Demography and Social Economics”, 1, pp. 66–78, https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2017.01.066 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2017.01.066

Einbürgerungen (n.d.), https://www.destatis.de/DE/Publikationen/Thematisch/Bevoelkerung/MigrationIntegration/Einbuergerungen.html (accessed: 31.05.2019).

Federal Statistical Office of Germany. Statistics Database (n.d.), https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online/data (accessed: 2.06.2019).

Hyndman, R.J., Booth, H. (2008), Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration, “International Journal of Forecasting”, 24 (3), pp. 323–342, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.009

Keilman, N., Pham, D.Q. (2004), Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area, Discussion Paper, No. 386, Social and Demographic Research, Statistics Norway, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24132711_Empirical_errors_and_predicted_errors_in_fertility_mortality_and_migration_forecasts_in_the_European_Economic_Area (accessed: 11.07.2019).

“Kurier” (2018), Bevölkerung: Westeuropa wächst, Osteuropa schrumpft, https://kurier.at/chronik/weltchronik/bevoelkerung-westeuropa-waechst-osteuropa-schrumpft/400054985 (accessed: 4.06.2019).

Libanova, E. (2010), Population of Ukraine. Labour emigration in Ukraine, Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv.

Libanova, E.M., Pozniak, О.V., Makarova, О.В., Sarioglo, V.G., Tkachenko, L.G. (2009), External labour migration of population, Ukrainian Centre for Social Reforms, Kyiv.

Mahmoud, O., Trebesch, T., Trebesch Ch. (2010), The economics of human trafficking and labour migration: Micro-evidence from Eastern Europe, “Journal of Comparative Economics”, 38, pp. 173–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.02.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.02.001

Malynovska, O. (2013), The policy of neighbouring countries with regard to compatriots as an instrument for replenishing human resources: challenges and lessons for Ukraine, “Strategic Priorities”, 3 (28), pp. 138–146.

Malynovska, O. (2015a), Labour migration of Ukrainian population: what to expect at the nearest future?, “Migration (Electronic Analytical Newspaper)”. April 29, http://migraciya.com.ua/upload/d75da205ca27e012961fe39b5b3da33c.pdf (accessed: 15.05.2019).

Malynovska, O. (2015b), Possible development of labour migration abroad in the context of current situation in Ukraine, “Journal of Pension Fund of Ukraine”, 3 (153), pp. 10–15.

Mansoor, A., Quillin, B. (2006), Migration and Remittances: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, The World Bank, Washington, https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6233-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6233-4

Mulska, O., Baranyak, I. (2019), Formation of the forecasting model for Ukrainian-German migration system, “Economy and Forecasting”, 2, pp. 119–136, https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2019.02.119 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2019.02.119

Ovchynnikova, O. (2017), Models of Regional Migration of the Population, “Intelekt XXI ”, 4, pp. 27–32.

Poznyak, O., Shevchuk, P. (2014), Demographic perspectives of Ukraine until 2060, “Demography and Social Economy”, 1 (21), pp. 72–84, https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2014.01.072 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2014.01.072

Sadova, U., Hrynkevych, O., Semiv, L., Teslyuk, R., Bil, M., Bidak, V., Ryndzak, O., Levytska, O., Mulska, O. (2019), Ukrainian migration in the context of the global and national challenges of the 21st century, International Labour Organization in Ukraine, Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv.

Sarioglo, V.G. (2016), Great data as a source of information and tools for official statistics: potential, problems, perspectives, “Statistics of Ukraine”, 4, pp. 12–19.

State Migration Service of Ukraine (2017), Migration profile of Ukraine. State Migration Service of Ukraine, Kyiv, https://dmsu.gov.ua/assets/files/mig_profil/migprofil_2017.pdf (accessed: 14.06.2019).

State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2018), Population of Ukraine in 2017. Demographic Yearbook, Kyiv, http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/PXWEB2007/ukr/publ_new1/2018/zb_dy_2017.pdf (accessed: 2.07.2019).

State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Statistics Database (n.d.), http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua (accessed: 10.06.2019).

Wickramasekara, P. (2008), Globalisation, international labour migration and rights of migrant workers, “Third World Quarterly: Special Issue on Globalisation and Migration: New Issues, New Politics”, 29 (7), pp. 1247–1264, https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590802386278 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590802386278