A Panel Analysis of Trade Gravity between Pakistan and South Asian Countries

Waheed Ullah Jan; Mahmood Shah

doi:10.18778/1508-2008.23.34

Autor

Waheed Ullah Jan Ph.D., Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Gomal University Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7615-9670
Mahmood Shah Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.23.34

Słowa kluczowe:

Azja Południowa, Pakistan, model grawitacyjny, kurs walutowy, liczba ludności

Abstrakt

W artykule podjęto próbę zbadania wzorców handlowych widocznych w relacjach Pakistanu z krajami Azji Południowej przy użyciu grawitacyjnego modelu handlu. Głównym celem badania było ilościowe określenie długoterminowego wpływu zmiennych grawitacyjnych. Aby osiągnąć ten cel, wykorzystano zestaw danych panelowych dla lat 2003–2017. Ponieważ wyniki testów panelowych pierwiastka jednostkowego były niewiarygodne, zastosowano techniki Pooled Mean Group (PMG) i Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). Wyniki modeli PMG i Panel DOLS uzasadniają teoretyczne podstawy modelu grawitacyjnego i sugerują, że wszystkie podstawowe zmienne grawitacyjne mają typowe znaki. Realny PKB i liczba ludności zarówno Pakistanu, jak i kraju partnerskiego mają pozytywny wpływ na ich handel dwustronny. Z drugiej strony odległość między dwoma krajami dokonującymi wymiany handlowej oraz kurs walutowy mają negatywny wpływ na handel dwustronny. Wyjątkowość tego badania polega na tym, że mierzy ono jednocześnie wpływ zmiennych jakościowych oraz podstawowych zmiennych grawitacyjnych. Podobieństwa językowe i wspólne granice mają pozytywny wpływ na handel dwustronny. Jednakże, choć Pakistan graniczy z Indiami i Afganistanem, ich relacje handlowe nie są istotne. Konflikty zbrojne między Pakistanem a Indiami oraz polityczna podejrzliwość w relacjach Pakistanu z Afganistanem komplikują ich stosunki handlowe.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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