Is There A Stable Long-run Relationship Between Unemployment And Productivity?

João Tovar Jalles

doi:10.1515/cer-2015-0012

Autor

João Tovar Jalles Center for Globalization and Governance, Nova School of Business and Economics, Portugal

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2015-0012

Słowa kluczowe:

załamania strukturalne, kointegracja, DOLS, przyczynowość w sensie Grangera, stacjonarność

Abstrakt

Artykuł jest próbą ustalenia czy istnieje stabilny długookresowy związek między produktywnością a bezrobociem, Badania obejmują dane dotyczące 19 państw OECD, pochodzące z lat 1970-2012 i są oparte o najnowsze ekonometryczne metody analizy szeregów czasowych. Wyniki badań wskazują, że poziomy bezrobocia i produktywności cechują się niestacjonarnością a w licznych indywidualnych przypadkach szeregi te są skointegrowane, nawet po uwzględnieniu możliwych załamań strukturalnych. W przypadku wielu indywidualnych państw efekty długoterminowe wydają się być generalnie pozytywne. Istnieją również dowody występowania przyczynowości dwukierunkowej, ale silniejszy ukierunkowany związek zachodzi między bezrobociem a produktywnością.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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