Personal Finances vs. the Overall Economic Conditions: What Drives the New EU Member States’ Stock Markets?

Ivana Lolić; Petar Sorić; Mirjana Čižmešija

doi:10.1515/cer-2017-0031

Autor

Ivana Lolić University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb
Petar Sorić
Mirjana Čižmešija

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2017-0031

Słowa kluczowe:

zaufanie konsumentów, badania biznesowe i konsumenckie, giełda, optymalizacja liczbowa

Abstrakt

W artykule przedstawiono analizę głównych cech wskaźnika zaufania konsumentów (CCI) w odniesieniu do stóp zwrotu z rynku papierów wartościowych dla 11 nowych państw członkowskich UE. Zaproponowano nowe wagi dla wskaźnika CCI, minimalizując średnie błędy kwadratowe z równań regresji, używając opóźnień CCI jako regresorów. Biorąc pod uwagę otrzymane wagi „optymalne”, badane kraje zostały zgrupowane w mikro‑ i makro‑zorientowane klastry. Zaobserwowano dużą zmianę wag będącą efektem niedawnej recesji. Aspekty mikro (odzwierciedlające efekt bogactwa) poważnie tracą na znaczeniu w czasie kryzysu a nastroje makroekonomiczne konsumentów zyskują na znaczeniu i stają się osobnym kanałem transmisji.

Pobrania

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