Consumer and Professional Inflation Expectations – Properties and Mutual Dependencies

Aleksandra Rutkowska; Magdalena Szyszko; Mariusz Próchniak

doi:10.18778/1508-2008.27.23

Autor

Aleksandra Rutkowska Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poznan, Poland
Magdalena Szyszko WSB Merito University Poznan, Poznan, Poland https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5322-3334
Mariusz Próchniak SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.27.23

Słowa kluczowe:

oczekiwania inflacyjne, wzajemna informacja, algorytm DTW

Abstrakt

Oczekiwania inflacyjne są kluczową zmienną dla banków centralnych. Jednak empiryczne badanie ich właściwości stanowi wyzwanie. Celem tego badania jest porównanie właściwości oczekiwań konsumentów i profesjonalistów oraz ocena nastawienia na przyszłość i informacji zawartej w oczekiwaniach tych grup uczestników rynku. W badaniu zastosowano miary oparte na entropii, aby uchwycić nieliniowe zależności między zmiennymi i algorytm dynamicznej transformaty czasowej (DTW) oraz uwzględnić różne opóźnienia w relacjach. Badanie obejmuje 12 gospodarek regionu europejskiego, w których realizowana jest strategia celu inflacyjnego. Wyniki sugerują, że w większości krajów profesjonaliści bardziej wybiegają w przyszłość, a konsumenci podążają za profesjonalistami. Obie grupy podmiotów gospodarczych prezentują oczekiwania zgodne pod względem zawartości informacyjnej. Występują różnice między krajami. Wyniki badań potwierdzają, że komunikacja i inne działania banków centralnych, nakierowane na kształtowanie oczekiwań, nawet jeśli skierowane są głównie do specjalistów, nie pozostają bez znaczenia dla konsumentów. Wartość dodana badania wynika z zastosowania alternatywnej metody oceny oczekiwań, pozwalającej na uniknięcie wad metod standardowych oraz na wyciągnięcie szerszych wniosków na temat zależności.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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