Effects of Money Demand on Trade Balance in Nigeria

Oluwole Jacob Adeyemi; Isiaq O.  Oseni; Sheriffdeen A.  Tella

doi:10.18778/0208-6018.351.02

Autor

Oluwole Jacob Adeyemi Chrisland University in Abeokuta, Department of Economics https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5681-6987
Isiaq O. Oseni Olabisi Onabanjo University in Ago‑Iwoye, Department of Economics https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6863-5593
Sheriffdeen A. Tella Olabisi Onabanjo University in Ago‑Iwoye, Department of Economics https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9128-2143

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/0208-6018.351.02

Słowa kluczowe:

popyt na pieniądz, bilans handlowy, zasoby pieniężne, kredyt krajowy, ARDL

Abstrakt

Prowadzone przez różnych autorów badania koncentrują się na wpływie deprecjacji waluty na bilans handlowy oraz politykę makroekonomiczną, podczas gdy związek między popytem na pieniądz a bilansem handlowym jest słabo udokumentowany w literaturze. W niniejszym artykule przeanalizowano wpływ popytu na pieniądz na bilans handlowy w Nigerii. Do analizy wykorzystano szeregi czasowe dla danych rocznych z okresu od 1986 do 2018 roku oraz autoregresyjny model o rozłożonych opóźnieniach (ARDL). Długookresowy współczynnik popytu na pieniądz miał znak dodatni i był statystycznie istotny na poziomie 5%. Pozytywne skorelowanie współczynnika popytu na pieniądz w dłuższej perspektywie miało znaczący wpływ na bilans handlowy. Oznaczało to, iż wzrost popytu na pieniądz o 1,57% prowadził do znacznego wzrostu bilansu handlowego o 1,57%. W konsekwencji można stwierdzić, iż popyt na pieniądz miał znaczący wpływ na bilans handlowy, prowadząc do zwiększenia produkcji towarów i promowania inwestycji, co zaowocowało zwiększonym wzrostem. Artykuł zawiera rekomendację, aby Bank Centralny Nigerii, za pośrednictwem Komitetu Polityki Pieniężnej, zmienił jakościową i ilościową politykę kontroli kredytowej tak, żeby usprawnić akcję kredytową i zwiększyć przepływ kredytów do eksportującego sektora gospodarki, w celu uzyskania pożądanego wpływu na bilans handlowy.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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