A COMPOSITE INDICATOR OF HOUSEHOLD DEMAND FOR DEBT (KONSTRUKCJA WSKAŹNIKA ZŁOŻONEGO POPYTU NA KREDYT GOSPODARSTW DOMOWYCH)

Authors

  • Piotr Białowolski Warsaw School of Economics

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/0208-6018.314.05

Keywords:

consumer credit demand, consumer tendency surveys, composite indicators

Abstract

In this paper we present a novel approach for construction of a leading indicator for household demand for debt, i.e. consumer credit demand index. In order to derive the proper set of indicators we first present a theoretical background for the dimensions of the index. With all dimensions of the index at hand we search for indicators in the State of the Households Survey and consumer finance survey. We later aggregate the dimensions into a single index with generalized mean which does not allow for full compensability between dimensions. Finally, we check the leading properties of the index.   

 

 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Piotr Białowolski, Warsaw School of Economics

Assistant Professor, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics

References

Ang, A., Bekaert, G., & Wei, M. (2007). Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better? Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1163–1212.
Google Scholar

Attanasio, O. P. (1994). The Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption: Theory and Evidence (No. 4811).
Google Scholar

Białowolski, P. (2014a). Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Social Indicators Research. doi:10.1007/s11205-014-0736-1
Google Scholar

Białowolski, P. (2014b). Consumer confidence, durable goods purchase and unemployment forecast. Ekonometria, 3(45).
Google Scholar

Białowolski, P. (2014c). Wykluczenie z rynku finansowego – głos w e-debacie. In M. Penczar (Ed.), Rola edukacji finansowej w ograniczaniu wykluczenia finansowego (pp. 95–112). Gdańsk: Instytut Badań nad Gospodarką Rynkową.
Google Scholar

Białowolski, P., Kuszewski, T., & Witkowski, B. (2010). Business survey data in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with combined forecasts. Contemporary Economics, 4(4), 41–58.
Google Scholar

Białowolski, P., Kuszewski, T., & Witkowski, B. (2014). Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data. Empirica, 41(1), 53–68. doi:10.1007/s10663-013-9227-x
Google Scholar

Blanchard, O. J., & Mankiw, N. G. (1988). Consumption : Beyond Certainty Equivalence. The American Economic Review, 78(2), 173–177.
Google Scholar

Brown, T. A. (2006). Confirmatory Factor Analysis for Applied Research. New York, NY: The Guilford Press.
Google Scholar

Browning, M., & Lusardi, A. (1996). Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts. Journal of Economic Literature, 34(4), 1797–1855.
Google Scholar

Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why? The American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397–1408.
Google Scholar

Clements, M. P., & Hedry, D. F. (1998). Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar

Costantini, M. (2013). Forecasting the industrial production using alternative factor models and business survey data. Journal of Applied Statistics, (July), 1–15. doi:10.1080/02664763.2013.809870
Google Scholar

Crook, J. (2003). The Demand and Supply for Household Debt : A Cross Country Comparison (pp. 1–52). Retrieved from http://www.iue.it/FinConsEU/ResearchActivities/EconomicsOfConsumerCreditMay2003/Papers/Crook.pdf
Google Scholar

EuropeanCommission. (2006). European Economy, Special Report no. 5, The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys.
Google Scholar

Fauvel, Y., & Samson, L. (1991). Intertemporal substitution and durable goods : an empirical analysis. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne d’Economique, 24(1), 192–205.
Google Scholar

Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton, NJ.
Google Scholar

Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis. Prentice Hall.
Google Scholar

Gruszczyński, M. (2002). Modele i prognozy zmiennych jakościowych w finansach i bankowości. Warszawa: Oficyna Wydawnicza Szkoły Głównej Handlowej.
Google Scholar

Hall, R. E. (1978). Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971–987.
Google Scholar

Jappelli, T., & Pagano, M. (1989). Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections : An International Comparison. The American Economic Review, 79(5), 1088–1105.
Google Scholar

Mankiw, N. . G. (1985). Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 353–362.
Google Scholar

Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of the Cross-Section Data. In K. Kurihara (Ed.), Post-Keynesion Economics. Rutgers University Press.
Google Scholar

Steenkamp, J. E. M., & Baumgartner, H. (1998). Assessing measurement invariance in cross-national consumer research. The Journal of Consumer Research, 25(1), 78–90.
Google Scholar

Welfe, A. (2003). Ekonometria. Warszawa: Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne.
Google Scholar

Downloads

Published

2016-02-29

How to Cite

Białowolski, P. (2016). A COMPOSITE INDICATOR OF HOUSEHOLD DEMAND FOR DEBT (KONSTRUKCJA WSKAŹNIKA ZŁOŻONEGO POPYTU NA KREDYT GOSPODARSTW DOMOWYCH). Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica, 3(314). https://doi.org/10.18778/0208-6018.314.05

Issue

Section

MSA2015