Fiscal Balance Factors of the Local Government: Panel Data Evidence from OECD Countries

Paweł Galiński

doi:10.18778/2082-4440.41.03

Autor

Paweł Galiński University of Gdańsk, Faculty of Management, Department of Banking and Finance https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9407-4515

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/2082-4440.41.03

Słowa kluczowe:

równowaga fiskalna, deficyt, stabilność fiskalna, zagrożenie fiskalne, samorząd terytorialny, wybory samorządowe, korupcja

Abstrakt

Równowaga fiskalna postrzegana jest jako podstawowy miernik stabilności fiskalnej w samorządzie terytorialnym. Wpływa ona na reakcję budżetu na wypadek potencjalnej recesji, determinując zagrożenie fiskalne i odporność finansową. Stąd ekonomiści prowadzą badania w celu identyfikacji czynników oddziałujących na równowagę fiskalną na szczeblu lokalnym. Dlatego celem tego artykuły jest zbadanie czynników o charakterze fiskalnym, społeczno-ekonomicznym, politycznym i instytucjonalnym, które wpływają na poziom salda budżetowego w relacji do Produktu Krajowego Brutto (PKB) na podstawie krajów OECD w latach 2007–2021. W badaniu zastosowano modele panelowe z efektami stałymi oraz z efektami losowymi, dynamiczne modele panelowe (GMM) oraz kwantylową regresję panelową z efektami stałymi. W rezultacie potwierdzono, że na poziom salda budżetowego samorządu terytorialnego w relacji do PKB oddziałuje strona wydatkowa decentralizacji fiskalnej, aktywność inwestycyjna, zmiany wskaźnika zadłużenia, inflacja, zmiana stopy bezrobocia, Wskaźnik Rozwoju Społecznego, wymiana handlowa, wzrost PKB oraz wybory samorządowe. Ujawniono także statystyczną istotność wpływu korupcji w przypadku oszacowanych modeli kwantylowej regresji panelowej z efektami stałymi. Dodatkowo zastosowano testy statystyczne U Manna–Whitney’a, Kruskala–Wallisa oraz Dunna w celu zidentyfikowania różnic pomiędzy krajami Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej i pozostałymi państwami OECD pod względem rozkładu badanego salda budżetowego w PKB.

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