Determinants of Pakistan’s Exports: An Econometric Analysis

Arshad Ullah Jadoon; Yangda Guang; Anwar Ahmad; Sajad Ali

doi:10.2478/cer-2018-0021

Autor

Arshad Ullah Jadoon Research Scholar, School of Economics, Northeast Normal University Jilin, Changchun, China
Yangda Guang Professor and Doctoral supervisor, School of Economics, Northeast Normal University Jilin, Changchun, China
Anwar Ahmad Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Islamia University, Peshawar, Pakistan
Sajad Ali Lecturer Higher Education Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar, Pakistan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/cer-2018-0021

Słowa kluczowe:

eksport, PKB, VECM, FDI

Abstrakt

Artykuł przedstawia wyniki badania determinant eksportu Pakistanu, dokonanego przy wykorzystaniu danych szeregów czasowych z lat 1990–2016. Zastosowano również wybrane testy ekonometryczne w celu sprawdzenia kointegracji zmiennych. Do sprawdzenia stacjonarności wybranych zmiennych wykorzystano test pierwiastka jednostkowego. Po sprawdzeniu stacjonarności danych stosuje się model wektorowej korekty błędem w celu oszacowania wpływu regresorów, takich jak: bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne, produkt krajowy brutto, poziom zatrudnienia i wydatki konsumpcyjne, na zmienną zależną, tj. eksport, w krótkim okresie. Wynik badania pokazuje pozytywny wpływ bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych, produktu krajowego brutto i poziomu zatrudnienia na eksport oraz niekorzystny wpływ wydatków konsumpcyjnych na zmienną zależną. W badaniu wykorzystano test kointegracji Johansena dla długiego okresu. Wyniki testu wskazują, że w długim okresie wszystkie zmienne są skointegrowane. Sugeruje się, że rząd powinien wspierać bezpośrednie inwestycje zagraniczne i wzrost produktu krajowego brutto, co przyczyniłoby się do wzrostu eksportu Pakistanu. Sugeruje się również aby prowadząc politykę handlową, w szczególności w odniesieniu do eksportu, zawsze ilościowo określać niekorzystny wpływ deprecjacji kursu walutowego, obciążenia długiem zewnętrznym, podatków, sankcji i protekcjonizmu, a także proponować niezbędne działania służące zminimalizowaniu możliwych negatywnych skutków.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

Bibliografia

Achakzai, J. K. (2006), Intra‑ECO trade: a potential region for Pakistan’s future trade, ʽThe Pakistan Development Reviewʼ, 425–437.
Google Scholar

Afzal, M. (2001), Exports in a Simultaneous Model–The Case of Pakistan, ʽGovernment College Economic Journalʼ 34(1&2), 53–66.
Google Scholar

Afzal, M. (2005), Demand and Supply of Exports in Pakistan, A Disequilibrium Model.
Google Scholar

Ahmed, Q. M., Butt, M. S., Alam, S., Kazmi, A. A. (2000), Economic Growth, Export, and External Debt Causality: The Case of Asian Countries [with Comments], ʽThe Pakistan Development Reviewʼ, 591–608.
Google Scholar

Akbar, M. (2000), The Export Competitiveness of Pakistan: A Constant Market Share Analysis, 1973–1995, ʽPakistan Journal of Applied Economicsʼ, 16, 1–23.
Google Scholar

Akbar, M., Naqvi, Z. F., Din, M. U. (2000), Export Diversification and the Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Pakistan [with Comments], ʽThe Pakistan Development Review ʼ, 573–589.
Google Scholar

Atique, Z., Ahmad, M. H., Zaman, A. (2003), The Supply and Demand for Exports of Pakistan: The Polynomial Distributed Lag Model (PDL) Approach [with Comments], ʽThe Pakistan Development Reviewʼ, 961–972.
Google Scholar

Balakrishnan, P. (1991), Industrial price behaviour in India: An ‘error‑correction’ model, ʽJournal of Development Economicsʼ, 37(1–2), 309–326.
Google Scholar

Balassa, B. (1978), Exports and economic growth: further evidence, ʽJournal of Development Economics ʼ, 5(2), 181–189.
Google Scholar

Butt, S. A., Hassan, A. (2008), Role of Trade, External Debt, Labor Force and Education in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan by Using ARDL Approach.
Google Scholar

Cunningham, R. T. (1993), The effects of debt burden on economic growth in heavily indebted developing nations, ʽJournal of Development Economicsʼ, 18(1), 115–126.
Google Scholar

Ekanayake, E. M. (1999), Exports and economic growth in Asian developing countries: Cointegration and error‑correction models, ʽJournal of Development Economicsʼ, 24(2), 43–56.
Google Scholar

El‑Sakka, M. I., Al‑Mutairi, N. H. (2000), Exports and economic growth: the Arab experience, ʽThe Pakistan Development Reviewʼ, 153–169.
Google Scholar

Froyen, R. T., Adams, J., Davidson, L. S. (1996), Study Guide [to Accompany] Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies, by Lawrence S. Davidson, Jack Adams. Prentice Hall.
Google Scholar

Gujarati, D. N., Porter, D. C. (2011), Econometria Básica–5. AMGH Editora.
Google Scholar

Hasan, M. A., Khan, A. H. (1994), Impact of devaluation on Pakistan’s external trade: an econometric approach, ʽThe Pakistan Development Reviewʼ, 33(4), 1205–1215.
Google Scholar

Hoekman, B., Djankov, S. (1997), Determinants of the export structure of countries in Central and Eastern Europe, ʽThe World Bank Economic Review’, 11(3), 471–487.
Google Scholar

Hotchkiss, J. L., Moore, R. E., Rockel, M. (1994), Export expansion and growth at different stages of development. ‘Journal of Development Economics’, Vol. 19, No. 1, 87–105.
Google Scholar

Husain, I. (2005, February). Economy of Pakistan: an overview, [in:] Key Note Address at the Expo 2005 Conference held at Karachi on February, Vol. 3, 2005.
Google Scholar

Khan, S. U. K. (2006), Macro determinants of total factor productivity in Pakistan. ‘SBP Research Bulletin’, Vol. 2, (2, 2006), State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, Pakistan.
Google Scholar

King, R. G., Stock, J. H., Watson, M. W. (1995), Temporal instability of the unemployment‑inflation relationship. ʽEconomic Perspectivesʼ, 19(3), 2–13.
Google Scholar

Krishna, V. V., Krishna, U. (2010), 2010 World Social Science Report Knowledge Divides.
Google Scholar

Lall, S. (2000), The Technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports, 1985–98, ʽOxford Development Studiesʼ, 28(3), 337–369.
Google Scholar

Levy, A., Chowdhury, K. (1993), An integrative analysis of external debt, capital accumulation and production in Latin America, Asia‑Pacific and Sub‑Saharan Africa, ʽJournal of Economics and Financeʼ, 17(3), 105–119.
Google Scholar

Lungu, M., Simwaka, K., Chiumia, A., Palamuleni, A., Jombo, W. (2012), Money demand function for Malawi: implications for monetary policy conduct, ʽBanks and Bank Systemsʼ, 7(1), 50–63.
Google Scholar

Lütkepohl, H. (1982), Non‑causality due to omitted variables, ʽJournal of Econometricsʼ, 19(2–3), 367–378.
Google Scholar

Majeed, M. T., Ahmad, E., Khawaja, M. I. (2006), Determinants of Exports in Developing Countries [with Comments], ʽThe Pakistan Development Reviewʼ, 1265–1276.
Google Scholar

Murtaza, G., Ghafoor, A., Qadir, M., Owens, G., Aziz, M. A., Zia, M. H. (2010), Disposal and use of sewage on agricultural lands in Pakistan: A review, ʽPedosphereʼ, 20(1), 23–34.
Google Scholar

Nelson, C. R., Plosser, C. R. (1982), Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications, ʽJournal of Monetary Economicsʼ, 10(2), 139–162.
Google Scholar

Pfaffermayr, M. (1996), Foreign outward direct investment and exports in Austrian manufacturing: substitutes or complements? ʽReview of World Economicsʼ, 132(3), 501–522.
Google Scholar

Prim, A. L., Amal, M., Carvalho, L. (2016), Regional cluster, innovation and export performance: an empirical study, ʽBAR‑Brazilian Administration Reviewʼ, 13(2),
Google Scholar

Sargent, T. J., Wallace, N. (1975), Rational Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule, ʽJournal of Political Economyʼ, 83(2), 241–254.
Google Scholar

Shombe, N. H. (2008), Causality Relationships between Total Exports with Agricultural and Manufacturing GDP in Tanzania. Institute of Developing Economies Discussion Paper No. 136.
Google Scholar

Spatafora, M. N., Luca, M. O. (2012), Capital inflows, financial development, and domestic investment: determinants and inter‑relationships, International Monetary Fund, No. 12–120.
Google Scholar

Trostle, R. (2010), Global agricultural supply and demand: factors contributing to the recent increase in food commodity prices, A Report from the Economic Research Service.
Google Scholar

Yasmeen, K., Anjum, A., Yasmeen, K., Twakal, S. (2011), The Impact of Workers’ Remittances on Private Investment and Total Consumption in Pakistan. ʽInternational Journal of Accountingand Financial Reportingʼ, 1(1), 152.
Google Scholar

Yusuf, F. H. (1985), Nationalisation of Industries in Bangladesh. National Institute of Local Government.
Google Scholar

Zukime, M., Junoh, M. (2001), Predicting Macroeconomic Time Series in Malaysia: Using Neural Network Approaches (doctoral dissertation), Universiti Utara Malaysia, www.etd.uum.edu.my.
Google Scholar