The Forecasting Of Labour Force Participation And The Unemployment Rate In Poland And Turkey Using Fuzzy Time Series Methods

Ufuk Yolcu; Eren Bas

doi:10.1515/cer-2016-0010

Autor

Ufuk Yolcu Ankara University, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Statistics
Eren Bas Giresun University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Statistics

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2016-0010

Słowa kluczowe:

rozmyte szeregi czasowe, prognozowanie, aktywność zawodowa, bezrobocie

Abstrakt

Metody rozmytych szeregów czasowych oparte na teorii zbiorów rozmytych zaproponowanej przez Zadeh (1965) zostały użyte po raz pierwszy w badaniach Song i Chissom (1993). Od tego czasu przy wykorzystaniu metod rozmytych szeregów nie obowiązują założenia wymagane dla tradycyjnych szeregów czasowych. Szeregi rozmyte stanowią jednak skuteczne narzędzie prognozowania, a zainteresowanie nimi jest coraz większe. Stosowane są w niemal wszystkich dziedzinach naukowych, takich jak ochrona środowiska, finanse i ekonomia. Szczególne znaczenie w obszarze ekonomii i socjologii mają zjawiska aktywności zawodowej i bezrobocia. Z tego powodu istnieje wiele badań z zakresu ich prognozowania. W niniejszym artykule wykorzystano właśnie różne metody rozmytych szeregów czasowych dla sporządzenia prognozy aktywności zawodowej i stopy bezrobocia w Polsce i Turcji.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

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