Escalation Ladder and the Game of Chances in the Ukraine war of 2022

Grzegorz Nycz

doi:10.18778/1641-4233.30.05

Autor

Grzegorz Nycz Pedagogical University of Cracow https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6579-4230

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1641-4233.30.05

Słowa kluczowe:

Nowa zimna wojna, konflikt w Ukrainie, drabina eskalacyjna

Abstrakt

Artykuł odnosi się do najnowszych wydarzeń, które rozegrały się w trakcie wojny w Ukrainie w latach 2022–2023, analizowanych z perspektywy wybranych spostrzeżeń pochodzących z badań nad odstraszaniem, w szczególności w ramach koncepcji drabiny eskalacyjnej. Powodem publikacji jest chęć zwrócenia uwagi na niebezpieczne kroki eskalacyjne w kontekście rozpętanej przez Putina wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej, w tym zniesienie kontroli zbrojeń strategicznych i rozmieszczenie taktycznej broni jądrowej w sąsiedztwie UE. Działania reżimu Władymira Putina zmierzające do przejęcia największej ukraińskiej elektrowni jądrowej lub uzyskania nad nią kontroli wzbudziły międzynarodową dyskusję na temat poważnego zagrożenia humanitarnego. Debata na temat odstraszania sprzed 1989 r. może wnieść ważną perspektywę badawczą, której dotychczas zabrakło w ramach analizy nowej zimnej wojny. W szczególności, rozwój sytuacji w 2023 r. w zakresie prowadzenia wojny w Ukrainie przy wsparciu Zachodu zapobiegającego realizacji scenariusza kryzysu nuklearnego (wykorzystanie arsenału taktycznego) można analizować w kontekście wcześniejszych koncepcji wojny lokalnej (lata 60.), a także dalszych opracowań dotyczących warunków wzajemnej podatności na zagrożenia.

Pobrania

Brak dostępnych danych do wyświetlenia.

Biogram autora

Grzegorz Nycz - Pedagogical University of Cracow

Grzegorz Nycz, b. 1980, specialises in U.S. security and defence policies. Published monographic volumes concerning the BMD evolution of deterrence (Westphalia Press) and “New Cold War in historical perspective” (De Gruyter), among others. Since 2011 a scholar of Pedagogical University. Graduate and post-graduate of Jagiellonian University. Member of Polish International Studies Association.

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