Drabina eskalacyjna a gra losów w ukraińskiej wojnie 2022 roku
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18778/1641-4233.30.05Słowa kluczowe:
Nowa zimna wojna, konflikt w Ukrainie, drabina eskalacyjnaAbstrakt
Artykuł odnosi się do najnowszych wydarzeń, które rozegrały się w trakcie wojny w Ukrainie w latach 2022–2023, analizowanych z perspektywy wybranych spostrzeżeń pochodzących z badań nad odstraszaniem, w szczególności w ramach koncepcji drabiny eskalacyjnej. Powodem publikacji jest chęć zwrócenia uwagi na niebezpieczne kroki eskalacyjne w kontekście rozpętanej przez Putina wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej, w tym zniesienie kontroli zbrojeń strategicznych i rozmieszczenie taktycznej broni jądrowej w sąsiedztwie UE. Działania reżimu Władymira Putina zmierzające do przejęcia największej ukraińskiej elektrowni jądrowej lub uzyskania nad nią kontroli wzbudziły międzynarodową dyskusję na temat poważnego zagrożenia humanitarnego. Debata na temat odstraszania sprzed 1989 r. może wnieść ważną perspektywę badawczą, której dotychczas zabrakło w ramach analizy nowej zimnej wojny. W szczególności, rozwój sytuacji w 2023 r. w zakresie prowadzenia wojny w Ukrainie przy wsparciu Zachodu zapobiegającego realizacji scenariusza kryzysu nuklearnego (wykorzystanie arsenału taktycznego) można analizować w kontekście wcześniejszych koncepcji wojny lokalnej (lata 60.), a także dalszych opracowań dotyczących warunków wzajemnej podatności na zagrożenia.
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