Weryfikacja hipotezy „too much finance” w krajach Europy Środkowo‑Wschodniej – badanie empiryczne
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18778/0208-6018.340.08Słowa kluczowe:
rozwój finansowy, tempo wzrostu PKB, model panelowyAbstrakt
Artykuł poświęcony jest analizie relacji między wskaźnikiem reprezentującym wartość udzielonych kredytów do PKB a wzrostem gospodarczym dla grupy jedenastu krajów Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej. Parametry modelu ekonometrycznego szacowane są za pomocą metody najmniejszych kwadratów oraz uogólnionej metody momentów przy wykorzystaniu estymatora Blundella‑Bonda. Wyniki badania empirycznego pokazują, że cała grupa może być podzielona na trzy jednorodne podgrupy o różnych wartościach optymalnego poziomu wskaźnika krajowego kredytu do PKB. Wyniki oszacowania parametrów modelu paneli pokazują, że Łotwa, Litwa, Estonia i Słowacja prawdopodobnie osiągnęłyby wyższy poziom wzrostu gospodarczego, jeżeli analizowany współczynnik wynosiłby 0,48. W przypadku Polski, Czech i Węgier optymalna wartość analizowanego współczynnika wyniosła 0,6. W przypadku Bułgarii, Chorwacji i Rumunii rozwój systemu finansowego wydaje się nie mieć żadnego wpływu na poziom wzrostu realnego PKB.
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