Modelling the Duration of the First Job Using Bayesian Accelerated Failure Time Models

Wioletta Grzenda

doi:10.18778/0208-6018.330.02

Authors

Wioletta Grzenda Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Event History and Multilevel Analysis Unit

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/0208-6018.330.02

Keywords:

parametric survival models, AFT models, the Bayesian approach, MCMC, employment

Abstract

In this paper, the duration of the first job of young people aged 18–30 has been analyzed. The aim of the work is to find the distribution which best describes the investigated phenomenon. Bayesian accelerated failure time models have been used for modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach made it possible to extend past research. More precisely, prior information could be included in the study, which let us compare distributions of model parameters. Moreover, the comparison of explanatory power of competing models based on the Bayesian theory was possible. The duration of the first job for men and women was also compared using the abovementioned methods.

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