Estimating urban growth on Mersin, Tarsus and Adana corridor in Türki̇ye by using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain

Selin Yildiz Gorentas; Sevil Sargin

doi:10.18778/1231-1952.31.2.03

Authors

Selin Yildiz Gorentas Kilis 7 Aralik University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Central Campus https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5497-0967
Sevil Sargin Marmara University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Goztepe Campus https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3402-4660

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1231-1952.31.2.03

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Keywords:

urban growth simulation, CA_Markov model, land cover/use, Türkiye

Abstract

In many developing countries, urban growth is often unplanned and haphazard, leading to significant threats to the sustainable use of urban land. This study predicts future urban expansion patterns in the Mersin, Tarsus and Adana corridor in Türkiye using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain models. Analysing Landsat satellite images from 1989 to 2019, we simulated land use changes for 2019, 2031, and 2049. The results indicate a projected increase in urban areas from 3.8% in 2019 to 7.4% by 2049, with significant expansion onto fertile agricultural areas. This unregulated growth highlights the urgent need for a well-planned governance approach that balances economic, social, and environmental factors to ensure resilient and sustainable urban development.

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Author Biography

Sevil Sargin, Marmara University, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Goztepe Campus

Professor Sevil Sargin completed her MA and PhD at the Istanbul University. She served in many academic and administrative positions. She published two books and wrote numerous articles about urbanization, tourism, city identity, urban conservation, and cultural geography. She retired in 2022. She still works on urbanization and sustainability.

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