Factors affecting tourist visits to archaeological sites in Turkey: A spatial regression analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18778/1231-1952.30.2.09Keywords:
Archaeological sites, World Heritage List, tourist, OLS regression, spatial regressionsAbstract
The study focuses on the factors affecting visitor numbers to archaeological sites in Turkey. The aim is to investigate the geographical, economic, and demographic factors underlying the visits using statistical methods. The study covers 117 archaeological site visits in 2019. Although existing studies analysed determinants of visits to archaeological sites of different countries, the evidence needs to be explicit. Methodologically, the classical linear regression models are primarily applied in the literature, whereas the incorporation of spatial dependence has largely been ignored. This study contributes to the literature by employing demographic, economic, and climatic factors and spatial relations between the sites. Therefore, spatial autoregressive (SAR) and spatial error models (SEM) are developed in the analyses. According to the results, WHL inscription and distance to the city centre are crucial factors for the visits. In addition, the study emphasizes the significant negative effect of spatial dependence on visitor numbers of archaeological sites near each other.
Downloads
References
ABUAMOUD, I. N., LIBBIN, J., GREEN, J. and ALROUSAN, R. (2014), ‘Factors affecting the willingness of tourists to visit cultural heritage sites in Jordan’, Journal of Heritage Tourism, 9 (2), pp. 148–165. https://doi.org/10.1080/1743873X.2013.874429
Google Scholar
AHUNBAY, Z. (2010), ‘Conservation Problems at Archaeological Sites an Assessment from theoretical and Legal Standpoint’, Turkish Academy of Sciences Journal of Cultural Inventory, 8, pp. 103–118, https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/tubaked/issue/57432/814185 [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
ALLKJA, L. and DHRAMI, K. (2021), ‘Territorial governance of cultural heritage through spatial planning in Albania and Kosovo’, European Spatial Research and Policy, 28 (2), pp. 43–62. https://doi.org/10.18778/1231-1952.28.2.03
Google Scholar
ANSELIN, L. (1988a), ‘Lagrange multiplier test diagnostics for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity’, Geographical Analysis, 20 (1), pp. 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1988.tb00159.x
Google Scholar
ANSELIN, L. (1988b), Spatial econometrics: methods and models, Springer Science & Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7799-1
Google Scholar
ANSELIN, L. (2001), ‘Rao’s score test in spatial econometrics’, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 97 (1), pp. 113–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3758(00)00349-9
Google Scholar
ANSELIN, L., BERA, A. K., FLORAX, R. and YOON, M. J. (1996), ‘Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence’, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26 (1), pp. 77–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(95)02111-6
Google Scholar
ANSELIN, L. and FLORAX, R. J. G. M. (1995), ‘Small sample properties of tests for spatial dependence in regression models: Some further results’, [in:] New directions in spatial econometrics, pp. 21–74, Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-79877-1_2
Google Scholar
ANSELIN, L. and MORENO, R. (2003), ‘Properties of tests for spatial error components’, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 33 (5), pp. 595–618. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(03)00008-5
Google Scholar
ANSELIN, L. and REY, S. (1991), ‘Properties of tests for spatial dependence in linear regression models’, Geographical Analysis, 23 (2), pp. 112–131. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1991.tb00228.x
Google Scholar
ASSUMMA, V., BOTTERO, M., CASSATELLA, C. and COTELLA, G. (2022), ‘Planning sustainable tourism in UNESCO wine regions: The case of the Langhe-Roero and Monferrato area’, European Spatial Research and Policy, 29 (2). https://doi.org/10.18778/1231-1952.29.2.06
Google Scholar
BIVAND, R., BERNAT, A., CARVALHO, M. et al. (2013), ‘The spdep package’, Comprehensive R Archive Network, Version, pp. 5–83, https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/9283478/package-spdep-the-comprehensive-r-archive-network [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
BURRIDGE, P. and FINGLETON, B. (2010), ‚Bootstrap Inference in Spatial Econometrics: the J-test’, Spatial Economic Analysis, 5 (1), pp. 93−119. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421770903511346
Google Scholar
CAREY, S., DAVIDSON, L. and SAHLI, M. (2012), ‘Capital city museums and tourism flows: An empirical study of the museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa’, International Journal of Tourism Research, 15 (6), pp. 554–569. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.1874
Google Scholar
CELLINI, R. (2011), ‘Is UNESCO recognition effective in fostering tourism? A comment on Yang, Lin and Han’, Tourism Management, 32 (2), pp. 452–454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.01.018
Google Scholar
ÇOKİŞLER, N. (2022), ‘The Relationship between Cultural Heritage and Tourism in Turkey: A Historical Perspective (1923-2000)’, Journal of Gastronomy, Hospitality and Travel (Online), 5 (3), pp. 1179–1188. https://doi.org/10.33083/joghat.2022.193
Google Scholar
CUCCIA, T., GUCCIO, C. and RIZZO, I. (2016), ‘The effects of UNESCO World Heritage List inscription on tourism destinations performance in Italian regions’, Economic Modelling, 53, pp. 494–508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.049
Google Scholar
CUCCIA, T. and RIZZO, I. (2011), ‘Tourism seasonality in cultural destinations: Empirical evidence from Sicily’, Tourism Management, 32 (3), pp. 589–595. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.05.008
Google Scholar
DÖSİMM (2019), Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Döner Sermaye İşletmesi Merkez Müdürlüğü Müze ve Örenyeri 2019 Yılı Toplam Istatistikleri [Museum and Archaeological Sites 2019 Total Statistics], [Online], https://dosim.ktb.gov.tr/; http://www.dosim.gov.tr/muze-istatistikleri [accessed on: 29.06.2020].
Google Scholar
DURAN, H. E. and GAJEWSKI, P. (2023), ‘State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress’, Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 18 (1), pp. 89–120. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2023.003
Google Scholar
ELHORST, J. P. (2014), Spatial Econometrics. From Cross-sectional Data to Spatial Panels, Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40340-8
Google Scholar
ERES, Z. and ÖZDOĞAN, M. (2018), ‘Archaeological Heritage in the Context of Cultural Tourism: An Assessment of Arcahaeological Sites in Turkey’, [in:] K. PIESKER, B. AKAN, D. GÖÇMEN and S. TEZER ALTAY (eds.), Miras 4 – Heritage in Context, 2, pp. 7–47, Ege Publishing.
Google Scholar
GOOGLE MAPS (n.d.) Costsite, CoastCity, and Distance Data of Turkish Cities, https://www.google.com/maps/ [accessed on: 29.06.2020].
Google Scholar
GOOGLE MAPS (2023), Location of the Archaeological Sites in Turkey, https://goo.gl/maps/KDdkUNZTvd8mqXga8 [accessed on: 19.06.2023].
Google Scholar
HERRERA GOMEZ, M., MUR LACAMBRA, J. and RUIZ MARIN, M. (2012), ‘Selecting the Most Adequate Spatial Weighting Matrix:A Study on Criteria’, MPRA Working Paper, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/73700/1/MPRA_paper_73700.pdf [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
HUANG, C.-H., TSAUR, J.-R. and YANG, C.-H. (2012), ‘Does world heritage list really induce more tourists? Evidence from Macau’, Tourism Management, 33 (6), pp. 1450–1457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.01.014
Google Scholar
KARABULUT, G., BILGIN, M. H., DEMIR, E., and DOKER, A. C. (2020), ‘How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence’, Annals of Tourism Research, 84, 102991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.102991
Google Scholar
LESAGE, J. P. and PACE, R. K. (2010), ‘Spatial econometric models’, [in:] Handbook of applied spatial analysis, pp. 355–376, Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03647-7_18
Google Scholar
LIANG, H. and ZHANG, Q. (2022), ‘Do social media data indicate visits to tourist attractions? A case study of Shanghai, China’, Open House International, 47 (1), pp. 17–35. https://doi.org/10.1108/OHI-05-2021-0110
Google Scholar
MAGABLIH, K. and Al-SHORMAN, A. (2003), ‘Management and Development of Tourist Sites in Jordan Using Geographic Information System’, Information Technology & Tourism, 6 (4), pp. 287–295. https://doi.org/10.3727/1098305032781166
Google Scholar
MCT (n.d.), Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Museums in Turkiye, https://muze.gov.tr/muzeler [accessed on: 29.06.2020].
Google Scholar
MCT (2018), Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The Year of Troya, https://canakkale.ktb.gov.tr/TR-200711/2018-troia-yili.html#:~:text=2018 [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
MCT (2019), Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The Year of Göbeklitepe, https://www.kulturportali.gov.tr/portal/2019-gobeklitepe-yili [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
MCT (2020), Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The Year of Patara, https://basin.ktb.gov.tr/TR-255214/2020-patara-yili-ilan-edildi.html#:~:text=2020%2C [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
MCT (2023a), Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Statistics of registered areas in Türkiye, https://kvmgm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-44973/turkiye-geneli-sit-alanlari-istatistikleri.html [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
MCT (2023b), Republic of Türkiye The Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Our activities, https://kvmgm.ktb.gov.tr/TR-43251/faaliyetler.html [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
MEJJAD, N., ROSSI, A. and PAVEL, A. B. (2022), ‘The coastal tourism industry in the Mediterranean: A critical review of the socio-economic and environmental pressures & impacts’, Tourism Management Perspectives, 44, 101007. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2022.101007
Google Scholar
MESKELL, L. (2018), A future in ruins: UNESCO, world heritage, and the dream of peace, Oxford University Press.
Google Scholar
MILLO, G. and PIRAS, G. (2012), ‘splm: Spatial Panel Data Models in R.’, Journal of Statistical Software, 47 (1), pp. 1–38. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v047.i01
Google Scholar
MILLO, G., PIRAS, G. and BIVAND, R. (2018), ‘Package ‘splm’’, CRAN, pp. 1–27. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/splm/splm.pdf [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
MORAN, P. A. P. (1950), ‘A test for the serial independence of residuals’, Biometrika, 37 (1/2), pp. 178–181. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/37.1-2.178
Google Scholar
NAUDÉ, W. A. and SAAYMAN, A. (2005), ‘Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: a panel data regression analysis’, Tourism Economics, 11 (3), pp. 365–391. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000005774352962
Google Scholar
NEPAL, R., INDRA Al IRSYAD, M. and NEPAL, S. K. (2019), ‘Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism’, Tourism Management, 72, pp. 145–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.08.025
Google Scholar
NEWEY, W. K. and WEST, K. D. (1987), ‘A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix’, Econometrica, 55 (3), pp. 703–708. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913610
Google Scholar
OH, M., KIM, S., CHOI, Y. and PRATT, S. (2019), ‘Examination of benefits sought by hiking tourists: a comparison of impact-range performance analysis and impact asymmetry analysis’, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24 (8), pp. 850–864. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2019.1635501
Google Scholar
PATUELLI, R., MUSSONI, M. and CANDELA, G. (2013), ‘The effects of World Heritage Sites on domestic tourism: a spatial interaction model for Italy’, Journal of Geographical Systems, 15 (3), pp. 369–402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-013-0184-5
Google Scholar
PEBESMA, E. and BIVAND, R. S. (2005), ‘S classes and methods for spatial data: the sp package’, R News, 5 (2), pp. 9–13, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/sp/vignettes/intro_sp.pdf [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
REPUBLIC of TÜRKİYE MINISTRY of AGRICULTURE and FORESTRY (n.d.), List of National Parks in Turkey, https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/DKMP/Menu/27/Milli-Parklar; https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/ [accessed on: 29.06.2020]
Google Scholar
REY, S. J. (2001), ‘Spatial empirics for economic growth and convergence’, Geographical Analysis, 33 (3), pp. 195–214. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.2001.tb00444.x
Google Scholar
REY, S. J. and MONTOURI, B. D. (1999), ‘US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective’, Regional Studies, 33 (2), pp. 143−156. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343409950122945
Google Scholar
RIDDERSTAAT, J., ODUBER, M., CROES, R., NIJKAMP, P. and MARTENS, P. (2014), ‘Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba’, Tourism Management, 41, pp. 245–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.09.005
Google Scholar
SELCUK, O., KARAKAS, H., CIZEL, B. and IPEKCI CETIN, E. (2023), ‘How does tourism affect protected areas?: A multi-criteria decision making application in UNESCO natural heritage sites’, Natural Hazards, 117 (2), pp. 1923–1944. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05934-x
Google Scholar
SU, Y.-W. and LIN, H.-L. (2014), ‘Analysis of international tourist arrivals worldwide: The role of world heritage sites’, Tourism Management, 40, pp. 46–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.04.005
Google Scholar
TAN, N., ANWAR, S. and JIANG, W. (2023), ‘Intangible cultural heritage listing and tourism growth in China’, Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 21 (2), pp. 188–206. https://doi.org/10.1080/14766825.2022.2068373
Google Scholar
TUİK (2019), Population and Income per Capita Statistics of Turkey, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/bolgeselistatistik/sorguSayfa.do?target=degisken; www.tuik.gov.tr [accessed on: 29.06.2020].
Google Scholar
TURKISH STATE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE (n.d.), 2019 Air Temperature Data of the Provinces in Turkey, https://www.mgm.gov.tr/veridegerlendirme/il-ve-ilceler-istatistik.aspx?k=undefined&m=ISTANBUL; https://www.mgm.gov.tr/ [accessed on: 29.06.2020].
Google Scholar
TÜRKOĞLU, İ. (2020), ‘The Importance of Cultural Heritage in Sustainable Development’, Journal, 10 (20), pp. 117–143. https://doi.org/10.33207/trkede.692194
Google Scholar
ULUSAN, E. (2023), ‘Conceptual Framework for Cultural Heritage Management Planning and the Analysis of Related Graduate Thesis Studies’, Planlama, 33 (1), pp. 40–57. https://doi.org/10.14744/planlama.2022.93276
Google Scholar
ULUSAN, E. and ERSOY, M. (2019), ‘FINANCING THE PRESERVATION OF HISTORICAL BUILDINGS IN TURKEY’, METU Journal of the Faculty of Architecture, 35 (2), pp. 251–267. https://doi.org/10.4305/METU.JFA.2018.1.4
Google Scholar
ULUSAN, E. and YILDIRIM, E. (2016), ‘For a «Balanced, Representative and Credible List»: an Evaluatıon of Turkey’s World Herıtage Candidates’, Idealkent: Journal of Urban Studies, 7 (19), pp. 444–473, https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/idealkent/issue/36795/419445 [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
UNESCO (1972), ‘Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage’, UNESCO, https://whc.unesco.org/archive/convention-en.pdf [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
UNESCO (2021), The World Heritage Convention, https://whc.unesco.org/en/convention/ [accessed on: 29.06.2021].
Google Scholar
UNESCO (2023a), State parties: China, https://whc.unesco.org/en/statesparties/cn; https://www.unesco.org/en [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
UNESCO (2023b), State parties: Italy, https://whc.unesco.org/en/statesparties/it; https://www.unesco.org/en [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
UNESCO (2023c), State parties: Turkey, https://whc.unesco.org/en/statesparties/tr; https://www.unesco.org/en [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
UNESCO (2023d), Tentative List, https://whc.unesco.org/en/tentativelists/?action=listtentative&state=tr&order=states; https://www.unesco.org/en [accessed on: 21.06.2023].
Google Scholar
WHITE, H. (1980), ‘A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity’, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 48 (4), pp. 817–838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934
Google Scholar
WINTER, T. (2015), ‘Heritage diplomacy’, International Journal of Heritage Studies, 21 (10), pp. 997–1015. https://doi.org/10.1080/13527258.2015.1041412
Google Scholar
YANG, C.-H. and LIN, H.-L. (2011), ‘Is UNESCO recognition effective in fostering tourism? A comment on Yang, Lin and Han: Reply’, Tourism Management, 32 (2), pp. 455–456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.03.011
Google Scholar
YANG, C.-H., LIN, H.-L. and HAN, C.-C. (2010), ‘Analysis of international tourist arrivals in China: The role of World Heritage Sites’, Tourism Management, 31 (6), pp. 827–837. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2009.08.008
Google Scholar
Published
Versions
- 2024-02-07 (2)
- 2023-12-30 (1)
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
