Stan i perspektywy procesu starzenia się ludności na świecie

Radosław Murkowski

doi:10.18778/0208-6018.347.01

Authors

Radosław Murkowski Poznan University of Economics and Buisness, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economic and Local Government Policy https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5258-3517

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/0208-6018.347.01

Keywords:

aging of the population, alternative measures of aging of the population, demographic forecasts, senility, beginning of the old age

Abstract

The aging of the population is the process of increasing the proportion of older people in the population, which is the result of two long‑term demographic trends: a decrease in fertility and an increase in life expectancy. For the correct measurement of the advancement of this process, it is extremely important what age we consider the beginning of the old age. In the traditional approach older people are most often considered to be people over 60 or 65 years of age. In the alternative approach the beginning of the old age can be considered the age which the expected life expectancy is exactly 15 years. In many parts of the world, the phenomenon of depopulation may appear in the coming years, and the number of children will be lower than the number of older people. In the future, older people will be in nearly one third of their entire population in many regions. However, the percentage of people who have 15 or fewer years to live will stabilize in the future at about 15% of the total population in the most developed countries. Therefore, the beginning of the old age will grow in the future up to 70 years and more in the most developed countries.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abramowska‑Kmon A. (2011), O nowych miarach zaawansowania procesu starzenia się ludności, „Studia Demograficzne”, nr 1(159), s. 3–22.

Billari F. C., Kohler H. P. (2004), Patterns of low and very low fertility in Europe, „Population Studies”, nr. 58(2), s. 161–176.

Daugherty H. G., Kammeyer K. C.W. (1995), An Introduction to Population, Guilford Press, New York.

Goldstone J. A. (2012), A Theory of Political Demography: Human and Institutional Reproduction, [w:] J. A. Goldstone, E. P. Kaufmann, M. D. Toft (red.), Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics, Oxford University Press, New York, s. 26–27.

Kohler H. P., Billari F. C., Ortega J. A. (2006), Low fertility in Europe: Causes, implications and policy options, [w:] F. R. Harris (red.), The Baby Bust: Who will do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes?, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham–Boulder–New York–Toronto–Oxford, s. 48–109.

Lutz W., Sanderson W., Scherbov S. (2008), The coming acceleration of global population ageing, „Nature”, nr. 451, s. 716–719.

Murkowski R. (2018), Metody pomiaru zaawansowania procesu starzenia się ludności, „Humanities and Social Sciences”, nr. 25(3), s. 213–229, http://doi.org/10.7862/rz.2018.hss.49

Myrskylä M., Kohler H. P., Billari F. C. (2009), Advances in development reverse fertility declines, „Nature”, nr. 460(7256), s. 741–743.

Sanderson W., Scherbov S. (2005a), A new perspective on population aging, „Demographic Research”, nr. 16, s. 27–58.

Sanderson W., Scherbov S. (2005b), Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age, „Nature”, nr. 435(7043), s. 811–813.

Sanderson W., Scherbov S. (2008), Rethinking Age and Aging, „Population Bulletin”, nr. 63.

Sanderson W., Scherbov S. (2010), Remeasuring aging, „Science”, nr. 329, s. 1287–1288.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017), World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition.